U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 1 Application of critical loads in European air pollution abatement strategies T. Spranger German Federal Environmental Agency and many other Europeans…!

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 2 1.Organisation 2.Methods 3.Results a.Critical Loads b.Critical Load Exceedances 4.Future 5.Summary

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 3 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) Framework Convention (1979) and 8 specific Protocols science and effects-based: >>1000 experts and scientists networked Scientific support from 3 core activities atmospheric measurements and modelling effects integrated assessment

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 4 CLRTAP approaches BAT: Technical emission standards Effects-based approach: Emission abatement policy driven by critical load exceedances Integrated assessment modelling: Least-cost emission abatement optimization → National Emission Ceilings per pollutant

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 5 National CL data/maps European CL data/maps European deposition data/maps Integrated Assessment Models compare European CL exceedance data/maps Optimized emission reduction scenarios European emission data/maps Emission abatement techniques & costs Nat´l Emission Ceilings Energy/ agriculture projections Use of CLs in Integrated Assessment Models

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 6 Working Group on Strategies&Review Executive Body Parametrization Application Validation of CL & DM

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 7 Focus of ICP M&M Critical Loads: –acidification –eutrophication –Cd, Pb, Hg effects Dynamic models  Target Loads Nitrogen effects modeling Links to climate change and biodiversity Harmonization of data & methods

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 8 Effects thresholds for sustainable protection from air pollution should: 1.reflect cause-effect relations; scientifically founded 2.be simple to apply in IAMs 3.be regionally variable (ecosystem specific) 4.be constant in time

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 9 Critical Load “the highest deposition of (…) below which harmful effects in ecosystem structure and function do not occur according to present knowledge” = long-term ecosystem capacity eutrophication, acidification, heavy metal effects terrestrial and (non-marine) aquatic ecosystems SMB and empirical used as sustainability indicators for policy guidance

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 10 Eutrophication: CLnut(N)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 11 Acification: CLmax(S)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 12 Biases and uncertainties Method harmonization (Manual) and control Cross-border comparisons Analysis of NFC data submissions by CCE But in the end, it is only useful to analyze b.&u. in an Integrated Assessment framework: RAINS Review (Grennfelt et al. 2004): –model design, uncertainties, abatement technologies & costs, communication –general conclusion: “RAINS is a reliable and scientifically defendable tool for policy advice” –various recommendations

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 13 Main results of CLRTAP negotiations National Emission Ceilings (2010) for European countries Emission reductions : SO 2 -60%; NO x -40%; NH 3 -17% Eutrophication >> Acidification Exceedances (N and Ac) dominated by ammonia emissions from intensive animal husbandry Additional (health) effect from S and N emissions: Secondary particles

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 14 Exceedance eutrophication

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 15 Exceedance acidification

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 16 Future I Three protocols being reviewed Focus on particulate matter, nitrogen, hemispheric transport, ships, renewables, non-technical measures parallel process with European Community (using CLRTAP data and methods concerning effects)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 17 SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 18 SO 2 emissions by sector New EU Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x No further climate measures With climate measures

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 19 NO x emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 20 NO x emissions by sector New EU Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 1800 ktx No further climate measures With climate measures

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 21 Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 22 NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 23 NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x NEC Ceiling 866 kt

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 24 Future II Coupled models: –N r & other air pollutant effects, –climate change, –biodiversity

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 25 The Netherlands 2000 The Netherlands ±1960

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 26 Use of biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for the Convention Great potential Current application: predict biodiversity impacts of emission scenarios Future application should be: define biodiversity-based critical/target loads

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 27 Use of critical loads outside the Convention National legislation EU CAFE Convention on Biodiversity EU Habitat Directive …

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 28 But nitrogen is more than LRTAP: The nitrogen cascade

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger J. Galloway et al ca today Global Nr fluxes

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 30 C Integrated approach to Nitrogen pollution? FCCC CLRTAP NEC Dir. AQ Directive Directives on emission control Manure Combustion Soil NO 3 N 2 O Effects on ecosystems o.a.decrease in biodiversity Effects on materials and cultural heritage Climate change Effects on human and animal health NH 3 4 NO 3 HNO 3 NO x Fertilizer industry CO 2,CH 4, SF 6, HFK, PFK,.. SO 2, (NH 4 ) 2 SO4 N2N2 Aquatic NO 3 Nitrate Directive Water Directive CBD

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 31 Conclusions (also for U.S.) Environmental and health risks due to air pollution in parts of N America similar to Europe –include ammonia! Effects-based emission abatement policy has been cost-effective and successful in Europe, but CLs are still widely exceeded –Eutrophication > Acidification –will be increasingly linked to biodiversity and climate change policies and targets Multi-media and multi-effect research and policy development needed to –reduce uncertainties –link & optimize management and abatement strategies

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 32 More information UNECE Convention EMEP WG on Effectswww.unece.org/env/wgewww.unece.org/env/wge ICP M&Mwww.icpmapping.orgwww.icpmapping.org RAINS IIASA EU CAFE ec.europa.eu/comm/environment/air/cafe/ec.europa.eu/comm/environment/air/cafe/ Intern´l Nitrogen Initiative Thank you for your attention!

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 33

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 34 The Protocols Implementation of and compliance with Protocols in force 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols 1988 NOx Protocol 1991 VOC Protocol 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol 1998 POP Protocol 1999 Gothenburg Protocol –multi-pollutant multi-effect three most recent Protocols under review –particulate matter!

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 35 History of effects-related CLRTAP bodies No. of Parties having participated in Task Force meetings and/or provided data, as of 28 Feb Working Group on Effects ICP Forests 41 ICP Waters 24 ICP Materials 19 ICP Vegetation 33 ICP Modelling and Mapping (formerly: Task Force on Mapping) 28 ICP Integrated Monitoring 19 Joint Task Force on Health 23 Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of the Working Group on Strategies and Review 1999 Gothenburg Protocol POPs Protocol Heavy Metal Protocol Sulphur Protocol VOC Protocol Nitrogen Oxides Protocol Sulphur Protocol EMEP Protocol Convention number of ratifications, as of 28 Feb 2005

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 36 Working Group on Effects, Sep 2005 Effects-based emission reduction strategies New long-term strategy New critical and target loads acidification (CL, TL) eutrophication (CL) heavy metals (CL; Pb, Cd, Hg) Cooperation between CCE and CIAM Importance of the EECCA region (Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 37 Long-term effects strategy Priorities: monitoring, assessment, exposure-response combination of stresses and feedbacks: –air pollution, climate change and biodiversity links modelling and mapping validation and uncertainties new heavy metals and POPs Benefit assessments

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 38

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 39

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 40 Dynamic models  reconstruction  prognosis  CL validation Damage delay time Recovery delay time

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 41 Chemical criterion is … Not violated Critical Load (CL) is … Not exceededExceeded Violated RDT exists Target year < RDT  TL < CL, if feasible Target year ≥ RDT  TL = CL TL < CL, if feasible (No DDT or RDT) If at present … DDT exists Target year ≤ DDT  TL = CL Target year > DDT  TL < CL, if feasible (No DDT or RDT) All fine! TL: Target Load; DDT: Damage Delay Time; RDT: Recovery Delay Time Acidification

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 42 Reduced exceedance of CL(acid)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 43 Reduced exceedance of CL nut (N)

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 44 How to link d(emissions) to d(CL exceedances): Impact coefficients for eutrophication

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 45 Impact coefficients for acidity

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 46 Common 2006 workplan items Report support of effects-based approaches for the review and possible revision of the Convention protocols (to be defined by the Executive Body) Summarize dose-response functions stock at risk Review links between field observations and critical loads

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 47 European Transboundary Nitrogen Activity CBD EEA/ECNC SEBI 2010

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 48 NitroEurope Challenges What are the quantitative components of nitrogen budgets for European ecosystems and how do these respond to the drivers of global change? How much does nitrogen control carbon exchange and net greenhouse gas budgets for European terrestrial ecosystems? How could a European N emissions strategy contribute to EU objectives in reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 49 COST 729 Challenges Much knowledge on causal chain and interaction with other cycles Development and extension of IAM necessary Source –receptor modelling, including atmosphere biosphere interactions and climatic influences Non-linearities and coupling with other cycles –N effects climate (N 2 O, aerosols) –Climate change affects SRM through meteo and chemistry –Feedback mechanisms

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger 50 ESF Project Nitrogen in Europe: Assessment of alteration of (European) N cycle Scientific Network Programme (5 years): –Overviews of literature, current studies, databases and models relevant for the N cascade –Grants for exchange visits –Workshops –Summer schools –Conferences –Databases, models –Webpage, dissemination

U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, May 2006Spranger production scaled to: - > Population increase relative to > N. American per capita Nr production after Galloway and Cowling, 2002 Nr production in 1995 and 2050 Tg N/y