A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Slobodan P. Simonović Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada

2| WEF Modelling WEF nexus Systems approach Conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional …. ANEMI model example Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

3| WEF Modelling Challenges of the new/old context Integration Outline Challenges of the new/old context Integration Systems approach Example ANEMI model Lessons learned Conclusions Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

4| WEF Context Definitions Nexus? A center point of something! A center of various connections! Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity Perspectives Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources Food perspective – water and energy are inputs Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output Vast individual areas Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

5| WEF Context Challenges Water-Energy-Food common concerns Access to services Environmental impacts Price volatility Growing population Poverty Health Climate change Mitigation – energy Adaptation – land and water Management Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency Study of the whole complex system Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks Scale 1.4 billion people without access to electricity 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating 900 million people without access to safe drinking water 2.6 billion do not have sanitation 900 million people are chronically hungry 2 billion people lack food security Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

6| WEF Context All three areas have many billions of people without Interactions All three areas have many billions of people without access (quantity or quality or both) All have rapidly growing global demand All have resource constraints All are ‘‘global goods’’ and involve international trade and have global implications All have different regional availability and variations in supply and demand All have strong interdependencies with climate change and the environment All have deep security issues as they are fundamental to the functioning of society All operate in heavily regulated markets All require the explicit identification and treatment of risks Bazilian, et al, Energy Policy, (2011) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

7| WEF Modelling Consideration of all three areas together Systems approach Consideration of all three areas together Systems view Complexity Whole system approach Difficult to translate into government policy making processes System structure Feedbacks System behavior Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

8| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1 NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2 Project objectives To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate system To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities. To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs. Interdisciplinary team Systems modelling – engineering Climate policy – geography and political science Economics – economics Partners Environment Canada Natural Resources Canada Department of Finance Department of Fisheries and Oceans Department of Agriculture ANEMI - Greek term for the four winds, heralds of the four seasons Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

9| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI Selection of the methodological approach First workshop ANEMI model development Structure Sectors Preliminary results Identification of key issues Communication with the project collaborators Selection of simulation scenarios Second workshop ANEMI model expansion Economy-energy integration Model regionalization Model use Scenario analyses Model limitations Third workshop Model transfer Future work Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

10| WEF Modelling Carbon cycle Climate Water Use Water Quality Example ANEMI Carbon Climate + Land Use Population Energy-Economy Surface Flow - Water Quality Water Demand − Food Production Clearing and Burning Land Use Emissions Temperature Atmospheric CO2 Water Stress Surface Water Availability Water Consumption Consumption and Labour GDP per capita Wastewater Treatment Reuse Treatment and Reuse Water use Intensity Industrial emission Water use efficiency Pollution Index Per capita food Arable Land Agricultural allocation Emission Index Fertility Carbon cycle Climate Water Use Water Quality Surface Flow Population Land Use Food Production Energy-Economy System dynamics simulation 9 sectors 2300 state variables 600 equations Thousands (close to 8000) of feedback loops Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

11| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Stock and flow diagrams Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

12| WEF Modelling Available water resources Example ANEMI - Equations Two stocks (oceans and land surface) Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation, snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

13| WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Simulation & optimization Optimization and simulation are carried out side by side in the energy-economy sector. The price of fuel and the capital stocks for energy production are simulated based on the optimal value of GDP, energy production and energy use across different sectors. In the ANEMI model (ANEMI version 2 and ANEMI_CDN), the optimal value of these components are driven by the optimization scheme in relation to the population and climate sectors as well as the energy sector. The optimization scheme of this ANEMI model also requires two more variables from sectors outside of the energy-economy complex: labour and climate damage function. The population sector supplies labour force to the model, which is comprised of the total population between the ages of 15 and 64. The damage function here stands for the economic damage due to sea-level rise, flood, drought and so on; it is the consequence of global temperature change. The global temperature is mostly influenced by radiative forcing: it is simulated within the climate sector of the ANEMI model. Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

14| WEF Modelling Global model Example ANEMI – global and regional Global model Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW) Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

15| WEF Modelling Policy communication process Example ANEMI – policy scenarios Policy communication process Set of interviews Identification of policy questions by the research team Identification of scenarios Initial set of scenarios Carbon pricing Economic growth rate Water pricing North American water stress Irrigation Energy subsidies and pricing Land use change Final choice Carbon tax Increased water use Food production increase Carbon tax scenario $10 per tonne of CO2e in 2012 reaches $275 per tonne in 2100 carbon capture for coal at $75 per tonne Increased water use increased water use by 15% to meet growing demand Food production increase increased agricultural area by 15% to grow more food Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

16| WEF Modelling Key findings Policy keeps atmospheric Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global) Linear ramp tax implemented for industrial emissions $10 per tonne of CO2e in 2012 CO2e Reaches $275 per tonne in 2100 Carbon capture for coal at $75 per tonne Key findings Policy keeps atmospheric CO2 concentration < 550 ppm Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

17| WEF Modelling Input Key findings Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global) Input Increased water use by 15% to meet growing demand Key findings Significant change Population, Water stress Minor change CO2, Temperature, Energy production Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

18| WEF Modelling Inputs Key findings Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global) Inputs Increase the land conversion rate by 15% from forest to agriculture Key findings Significant change Population, Water stress Minor change CO2, Temperature, Energy production Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

19| WEF Modelling WEF nexus Systems approach Example ANEMI – conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional …. ANEMI model example Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

20| WEF Modelling www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids Resources Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433. Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8. Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161. M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3. Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34:684-700. www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids Exeter, 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović