Presentation on theme: "The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective Paul Dodds."— Presentation transcript:
1 The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective Paul Dodds
2 Introduction Who we are and what we do Energy system models Initial thoughts on the water-food-energy nexusOur interests in this research area
3 Who we are and what we doUCL Energy Institute (energy systems, buildings, transport)UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources (food, bioenergy, water, mineral and petrochemical resources, and waste, from environmental, economic and policy perspectives)Energy systems:UK MARKAL energy systems model, which underpins UK government decarbonisation strategies.TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) is a global energy systems model with a climate component and a UK regionPolicy work
4 MARKAL modelling for UK policy 20072010EWP 03CAT StrategyEnergy ReviewEWP 07CC Bill2000STNDMACROMEDUKERC, Research council projects, UK-Japan LCS, Ofgem, NGOs etcUK GovernmentUK Government, CCCModel typeFundingRapid simple structured model development to inform EWP 03CCS enhancement for CAT strategyMajor 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with MACRO extensionMED model development with major CCC and UKERC scenariosCCC 1st reportCCC & DECC analysisLCTPTIAM-UCL, StochasticCAT – Carbon Abatement TechnologiesStochastic MED model , Global TIMES model (UKERC)4
5 Assessing Energy, Economy, Engineering & Environment (E4) Interactions ENERGY AND ECONOMYAVAILABILITY/CHOICEOF TECHNOLOGIESGDP & CAPITALREQUIREMENTSMARKAL-MACRO/EDENERGY SERVICESDEMANDSECONOMY AND SOCIETYRESOURCES AND TRADETRADE (including IET)MINING LIMITS &ENVIRONMENTALLIMITSENVIRONMENTALEFFECTSENVIRONMENT32
7 Characterisation of MARKAL/TIMES LinearPartial equilibriumPerfect foresightBottom-upEnergy-economic-environment-engineeringCost-optimisationEnergy flows, environmental constraints, economic and policy focus
8 Energy Modelling typology Top-downBottom-upBehaviourComputable general equilibriumMacro-econometricSimulationEconometricOptimisationGrowth modelsHybrid ModelsIntegrated Assessment ModelsClimateAlways a trade-off in model type, focus and implementation
9 Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus Self sufficiencyHow will climate change and population growth affect domestic and agricultural supplies? New investment?How will food production change in the future? Long-term trends and short-term variabilityWill the UK become dependent on foreign energy supplies? How will climate variability affect future production?SecurityWill the price of water increase to an unsustainable level for part of the population?How will local production and world food price trends and fluctuations affect the price of food for the UK population?How will local production and world energy price trends and fluctuations affect the price of energy for the UK population?National and international scalesShort-term and long-term trendsWater is very much a national problem
10 Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus How can the UK government mitigate the impact of global water, food and energy shortages in the long term?How could the impact of water, food and energy insecurities in other countries affect the UK?Public disorderCross-border conflicts over resourcesMass migrationAre there economic opportunities for the UK caused by water, food and energy insecurities abroad?
11 Water-food-energy interactions Are there currently strong links between water, food and energy in the UK?Could there be strong links in the future?e.g. land uses for crops or bioenergy – with a high CO2 price, producing biomass could be much more lucrative for UK farmers than producing food in the future (McDowall et al. 2012).Should we consider short-term phenomena (e.g. interrupted electricity supplies due to flooding)?
12 UCL ISR research programme Our interests in this area – not just energy but also sustainable use of resources