Iveta Palková IBA Understanding Rural Population Loss

Economic growth in 1990s included rural US (contrast with previous years) Poverty rates declined in rural counties 85% in in 4rural lost pop. In (5% and more) - many are agricultural, and have no solution for a change 3 characteristics likely for loss of pop. 1) Location away from metro areas 2) Low Population Density 3) Low level of natural amenities If these characteristics were included in counties they wouldnt lose people - Industrial agriculture, casinos, prisons helped

Population loss is more than a question of Job Availability Economic Models - High poverty = Population loss Opportunities decline – poverty rises – people move Outmigration - reduces poverty rate and equalizes through areas Two facts refute this model: 1st – poverty over 20% pop.loss had these conditions for decades 2nd – they’re distinct areas High Poverty – South,Midwest,Native Americans areas (Figure 1) Population Loss – Center, Northeast, South High poverty area – high school completion is relatively low Population loss in low poverty area – people prefer size and density of place

Jobs-decline in urban manufacturing, low paying service sector - workers lacking high school degree (cant expect better wages)- outmigration is diminished - low education areas have population loss Population loss areas- have economic base dependent on agriculture (agriculture employs fewer and fewer people) What distinguishes areas of population growth from areas of decline is not the absence of agriculture as much as the lack of other industry

Settlement patterns and the Problem of access Access to service is not a problem in or near metro areas Nonmetro areas are sufficient for most needs Very thinly settled areas – access is a major problem Problem of access increased because people expect greater specialization Problems in remote areas- employment,low wage jobs,employers seek less skilled workers Scale to measure county remoteness(by Ghelfi and Parker): 1. Adjacent to a metro area of 1 milion or more people 2. Adjacent to a smaller metro area 3. Not adjacent but with a density of over 10,1 people per square mile 4. Not adjacent but with a density of fewer 10,1 people per square mile

Ghelfi and Parker distinguish nonadjacent by size of a place,but density may be more important for reasons: 1. -community boundaries are diffuse in rural areas=rural sprawl -people move from town to open county areas even when they dont have to (they often shop in one, work in another and live in neither) 2. -services are often beyond particular communities:health,school etc,span several towns -employers look to local labor market rather than particular town (density more important than town size) ,1 persons per square mile is lowest density for nonmetro counties 4. -we refer to low density remote counties „frontier counties“ (2persons per square mile) This map (Fig2) - Lake Superior,mountainous regions,east=Few Frotnier Counties - Great plains,Rocky mountain,Center-West=Largely Frontier Counties

Dependence on agriculture reflects less the presence of agriculture than absence of other industries Third of county is in crops no matter where the county is located

Frontier counties are more likely to be „Farming-Dependent“ -Rarely attract manufacturers or other employers -3% „manufacturing-dependent“ -More likely to lose population (over half had fewer people in 2000 than in 1990, over third lost 5%)

Natural Amenities People move to rural areas to enjoy slower paced,community life and for outdoors (lakes,mountains) To measure natural amenities we use 6 items: 1. Average january temperature 2. January days of sun 3. Temperature in summer 4. Low july humidity 5. Percent of county that is surface water 6. Topological variation Associated with a countys change in population and employment Highest scoring = mountain west,Florida Lowest scoring = North central region (FIG5)

Best cropland-lowest in natural ammenities Higher proportion of land in crops-less likely to be recreation county (FIG6)

3 of 4 frontier counties with below average natural amenities classified as farm dependent(fig7)

Population loss in the 1990´s was strongly related to both natural amenities and frotnier status 70% of frontier counties in lost over 5 %

Loss in high amenity frontier counties are ascribed to mine closures Farm dependent counties-location matters-frontier status + low natural amenities = pop.loss ( )

Sources of population loss We considered loss with characteristics like remoteness, dependance on farming, low natural amenities Frontier counties loss pop. In 1990´s (because of quality of life)  Reason to move there only for family ties of natural amenities  Small labor,low-pay jobs,poverty rate not high  Demographics (pop.loss):outmigration,declined birth rate,older population Pop.Loss (nonmetro area)factors:Geography(remoteness)-most sailent,Natural resources base, Socioeconomic(poverty,edu),demography(age 65 < ) Farm-dependable-pop.loss because of geography Promoting education in rural areas-outmigration,pop.loss Poverty rate is highly related to young adult high school compeltion rate  If poverty rate exceeds the norm-the greater chance of pop.loss Its not clear to what extent presence of elderly people is reason for pop.loss in past and in future

Why some low-amenity frontier counties gained pop. A quarter (56)of low-amenity counties gained pop. In 1990´s 12 of them represented a turnaround -Is there lesson to be learned? Research: in 9-casinos opened, in 3-prisons(jobs + inamtes),meatpacking-Growth was hispanic,non hispanic moved In 2(minesota,wisconsin)-seasonal recreation,second home development 9 on interstates or near city gained because of rural sprawl Others:religious migration,expansion of manufacturing Except 2nd home and recreation, growth involved new employer Rare event in minesota-snowmobile bussines in1954 (5000jobs) Frontier counties-difficult to live and do bussines in In some cases new amenitites helped growth

Summary and Conclusion US property in1990´s didn´t extend in many rural areas-high poverty,pop.loss (declining emplyment) Farm dependent are more likely to lose pop. (remote,low density,low nat,amenities) High poverty (missisipi,apalachia,North,Iowa,Southwest minesota)- low natural amenities scale Frontier counties-must develop recreation or will lsoe more people  Internet may help isolation, but the want to move to city with more density will probably not go away

Thank you for your attention.