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Is Ames growing too rapidly or too slowly, and should we care about the answer? Peter F. Orazem Department of Economics Iowa State University

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Presentation on theme: "Is Ames growing too rapidly or too slowly, and should we care about the answer? Peter F. Orazem Department of Economics Iowa State University"— Presentation transcript:

1 Is Ames growing too rapidly or too slowly, and should we care about the answer? Peter F. Orazem Department of Economics Iowa State University pfo@iastate.edu 294-8656 December 28, 2007 To read original research papers, go to http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/orazem/Ames/AMES_index.htm

2 How has Ames grown compared to the Iowa average, 2000-2007 Source: http://www.iowaworkforce.org/trends/emphistory.htmlhttp://www.iowaworkforce.org/trends/emphistory.html Change is computed as October 1999 through October 2007. These are the latest numbers available. Note: 9 of the 13 largest employers in Ames are in govt./nonprofit

3 Ames Should Grow Faster than Iowa Average Urban County Adjacent to Metro Contains Interstate Contains a Research I University

4 Suitable comparisons Counties in the Des Moines Metro area Midwestern counties with Research 1 Universities

5 Source: Liesl Eathington, SETA

6 1990

7 Since 1990, Ames has been growing more slowly than most counties in the Des Moines metro Since 1980, Ames has been growing more slowly than most Midwestern counties with Research I universities

8 Why does slow growth matter to Ames? Ames is part of the Greater Des Moines market Commuting Information Education Regional Transportation Shopping Entertainment

9 Firms can locate anywhere in the Des Moines metro As the center of Greater Des Moines aggregate income growth moves further west and south of Des Moines… Employment Shopping Entertainment Will be further away from Ames

10 STORY Eathington, Liesl. “Characteristics of Growth and Change in Iowa’s Workforce: Issues for Families and Communities” http://www.seta.iastate.edu/library.aspx?lmode=2&ltopic=3 Example: commuting patterns

11 Eathington, Liesl. “Characteristics of Growth and Change in Iowa’s Workforce: Issues for Families and Communities” http://www.seta.iastate.edu/library.aspx?lmode=2&ltopic=3

12 Should we care that Ames has experienced slow growth? School closings Lost cultural amenities Lost shopping diversity Flat tax base Example: Local option sales tax and school investment local option (SILO) tax

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14 Data Source: http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/

15 Data Source: http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/ Per capita sales tax receipts have fallen even more—Have people stopped shopping or are they going elsewhere?

16 Source: Liesl Eathington, 2005 Retail Trade Analysis Reports for Ames,Iowa http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/ http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/2005rta/ AMES SALES ARE LOW RELATIVE TO POTENTIAL SALES BASED ON POPULATION AND INCOME STATE NORM Ames had 46 apparel stores in 1998, 35 in 2005

17 Ames cannot use Local Option Sales Tax to pay for the new pool Ankeny and Johnston can pay for new public amenities from the increase in sales tax receipts.

18 Past source of growth was the public sector which is in decline Ames needsprivate sector growth Ames needs private sector growth just to maintain its current level of income and employment

19 Does Ames support entrepreneurship? Comparison with Lawrence Kansas

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21 Story County has lost 14% of its proprietors since 1992

22 Ames business climate is not attracting or retaining investors

23 Do regulations discourage investors?

24 Do Ames Regulations on Land Use Make Things Better or Worse?

25 Land Use Policy Ames has stressed “village development” using high density housing and mixing businesses and homes to make walkable neighborhoods to prevent sprawl. Note that in many cities, the “village” would be the size of Ames.

26 Original Plan for Somerset Development Northridge 414 homes Bloomington Heights Lots of houses

27 In places with cheap land…. Families don’t want to raise their children next door to a bar They want a house with a yard

28 Bloomington Heights and Northridge represent the fastest growing area in the Gilbert school district

29 If we select priority growth areas correctly, shouldn’t they grow more rapidly?

30 Southwest Growth Priority Area Ames Land Use Plan Priority Growth Areas U.S. 30 South Dakota Ontario

31 If Ames wants to maintain student numbers, Ames needs to… Add jobs for young families Have housing that young families want ….not Potemkin apartment complexes

32 Does Ames look appealing to investors?

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35 City of Ames Resource Not Found The page you have requested could not be found or is no longer available. City GovernmentCity Government | Living In Ames | City Employment | Departments Doing Business | Facilities | News and Information | Home More Community InformationLiving In AmesCity EmploymentDepartments Doing BusinessFacilitiesNews and InformationHome More Community Information Copyright 1996-2002 City of Ames, Iowa All rights reserved.

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38 Why isn’t Main Street in the middle of town?

39 Ames, 1875

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41 CAMPUSTOWN, 1912

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43 Suitable Comparisons Counties in the Des Moines Metropolitan Area Midwestern counties containing large public universities

44 1990 1982

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46 SUMMARY INFORMATION ON GROWTH


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