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2. Antecedents of High and Lower Child Poverty: An analysis of the county-level factors that precede a shift to high child poverty between 1980 and 2015
Andrew Schaefer, PhD
Marybeth J. Mattingly, PhD
University of New Hampshire; Carsey School of Public Policy
PAPER TITLE; ADD BETH

3. Background
Child poverty related to short- and long-term health, education, employment, and civil consequences
Recent attention to children’s community context and the concentration and persistence of child poverty in some places
Children in places where poverty has persisted for decades face fewer opportunities and worse outcomes

4. Past Work on Persistent Child Poverty in U.S. Counties
High child poverty (20% or greater) in 1980, 1990, 2000, and ACS
Disproportionately concentrated in rural counties
Associated with county-level structural factors:
family structure,
employment,
education,
race-ethnicity

5. Research Questions
Between 1980 and 2015, what are the patterns in child poverty?
Where are the counties that experienced:
persistent high child poverty,
no child poverty rate above 20%,
a shift from lower child poverty to high child poverty, and
a shift from high child poverty to lower child poverty?
Can changes in demographic characteristics like racial-ethnic composition, family structure, and educational attainment, as well as changes in unemployment and industry composition help explain these patterns?

6. Data 1980, 1990, and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census
(2010) and (2015) American Community Survey 5-Year estimates
Consistent data for all current U.S. counties

7. Analytical Plan Official Poverty Measure (OPM) framework
Two adults; two children = $24,036
One adult; one child = $19,072
High child poverty = 20% or greater at a given time point
Persistent child poverty = High at each time point
Lower to high = Lower in 1980; high in 2015
High to lower = High in 1980; lower in 2015
Never high = No instances of high child poverty
Mixed = other child poverty pattern.

8. Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000; ACS 2006-2010 and 2011-2015

10. Smaller increase in median home value and lower median in 2015
Larger increase in child poverty and higher 2015 value
Similar racial-ethnic change over time; slightly more diverse in 2015
Less education growth; lower 2015 higher education value
Stagnant / lower labor force participation
Add Table; then split out the key take aways as line graphs
Similar change; potentially higher single-mother family value in 2015
Dramatic decline in manufacturing industry

11. Logit Regression Model Predicting Transition From Low to High Child Poverty

12. Nonmetropolitan counties with smallest decline in percent children have highest probability of transition

13. Nonmetropolitan counties with smallest increase or decline in percent with a college degree or more have highest probability of transition

14. Nonmetropolitan counties with largest declines in labor force participation have highest probability of transition

15. Nonmetropolitan counties with largest increase in single-mother families have highest probability of transition

16. Nonmetropolitan counties with largest manufacturing decline or service increase have highest probability of transition

17. Summary of Major Findings
Similar share of nonmetro and metro counties transitioned from low to high child poverty between 1980 and 2015 (~30 percent)
Change over time in various predictors of high child poverty also predicted a transition from low to high child poverty:
Age structure
Education
Family Structure
Labor force Participation
Industry Decline
Surprisingly, racial-ethnic structure change not associated with transition from low to high child poverty

18. Next Steps Further refinement of transition definitions
Analysis of transitions from high to lower poverty (rare)
Potentially including state-level characteristics / other county data (e.g. voting data)
Comparison of nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties
Historical analysis and use of specific counties as case studies
Increased attention to logit regression model, especially re: analyzing spatial autocorrelation