The Future of Biomass Energy Energy Days 2012: Many Paths for Sustainable Energy

Overview How big is this industry and what is its potential both in the US and internationally? What are the benefits—to our economy, to our environment? What are the obstacles—energy markets, food vs. fuel, the carbon debate—that prevent biomass from reaching its full potential?

Biomass Technology Today 3 primary sources of fuel—agricultural and forestry residues, wastes (urban wood, manure, the biogenic portion of MSW), existing forestry (low value roundwood plus thinnings etc) 3 technologies (not counting bio-chemical technologies to make liquid fuels)—  Combustion (thermal and/or electricity)  Gasification (syngas)  Pyrolysis (bio-oil, biochar)

Biomass in the US

U.S. Biomass Energy: Today and in the Future

Biomass Consumption in the U.S. 13% of renewably generated electricity Nearly all (97 percent) of the industrial renewable energy use Nearly all the renewable energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors (84% and 90%, respectively) 2.5% of transport fuel use (Millions Dry Tons/Year)

Outside the US Globally, landscape somewhat different… 90% fossil fuels, nuclear, large scale hydro 10% of the World’s energy comes from bioenergy— 2% CHP, energy used for transportation 8% traditional uses like wood straw, charcoal (particularly in developing countries)

Potential in the US for Growth 2005 “Billion ton” study by DOE and USDA Sector can grow from 3% to 30% displacement of fossil fuel without substantial land use change or compromising fuel. Seven-fold increase over current levels (Millions Dry Tons/Year)

Worldwide Potential UK Energy Centre ( Four categories— 1. Energy crops 2. Ag and forestry residues 3. Wastes 4. Existing forestry

Summary of UK Study Double current use, or 20% of world’s energy needs, from mostly non-energy crops. Using mostly wastes. Half of world’s energy supply if marginal, degraded or deforested land was utilized (land area from 2 to 10 times size of France) Approaching 100% of world’s energy could come from bioenergy if food crop yields outpaced demand for food, and high yielding ag land size of China could be used, and marginal and degraded land size of India.

Jobs Picture In the US, the metric is 4 jobs per 1 MW of installed capacity 60,000 jobs in the Southeast if the US adopted a 25% RES Biomass = jobs Example: Gainesville Renewable Energy Center building facility with 100 MW installed capacity, will result in 700 direct and indirect jobs

Jobs Picture: Developing Countries Estimated employment in developing countries: Pakistan: 600,000 (production, conversion, transportation) India: 3-4 million (woodfuel trade is largest source of employment in energy sector) Philippines: 700,000 (production)/140,000 (trade) Brazil: 700,000 (ethanol)/200,000 (charcoal) Kenya & Cameroon: 30,000 (charcoal) Ivory Coast: 90,000 (charcoal)

Jobs Picture: Europe

The Environment: “Ground Zero” for Why Biomass Consider last week’s announcement by State Department on “short-lived climate pollutants” (methane, soot, HFC’s) Bangladesh, Canada, Ghana, Mexico Global Methane Initiative (25 times more potent than GHG’s) Soot—3 million deaths Discourage “open-burning”.5% celsius reduction by 2050

Economic/Political— “Double Whammy” for All Renewables Plummeting natural gas prices Eroding support for renewables on the federal level 1. Tax Incentives 2. National Renewable Energy Policy—what policy???? 3. No price on carbon Can the EU sustain its aggressive targets in light of fiscal belt tightening? Can the rest of the world “afford” it?

Fuel Supply Practical Considerations Sustainable Plentiful Compete with other industries, food

Warring Scientists on Carbon Issue Landscape versus Site Level—in other words, what is the scope of the study? Carbon Debt Dividend versus maintaining carbon stocks Looking at specific feedstocks and picking winners and losers. Sustainability criteria and certification Where is all this headed?

Questions? Feel free to contact me: Bob Cleaves President & CEO Biomass Power Association (office)