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Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Burton C. English.

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Presentation on theme: "Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Burton C. English."— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Burton C. English

2 Use this time to address some questions Bioenergy – Potential Feedstocks Bioenergy – Potential Feedstocks Residues or Dedicated Energy Crops? Residues or Dedicated Energy Crops? What is the UT Switchgrass Project? What is the UT Switchgrass Project?

3 Renewable Energy Electricity Cattle Manure Residues Corn, Wheat Dedicated Energy Crops Digester Dairy, Poultry, Hogs Mill Wastes Fuel Reduction Forest Residues Biodiesel Oilseed Crops Yellow Grease Tallow Beef and Poultry Ethanol Corn Residues Corn and Wheat Dedicated Energy Crops Forest Residues Food Mill Wastes Renewable Energy Feedstocks From Agriculture

4 Geographical Competitiveness Biomass conversion to energy utilizes a number of different feedstocks including agricultural and forest residues, mill and urban wastes, and dedicated crops. Information on the quantity of feedstock supply available at the county level exists for prices ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ton (excluding transportation costs) for agricultural and residues, mill and urban wood wastes, and switchgrass. Biomass conversion to energy utilizes a number of different feedstocks including agricultural and forest residues, mill and urban wastes, and dedicated crops. Information on the quantity of feedstock supply available at the county level exists for prices ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ton (excluding transportation costs) for agricultural and residues, mill and urban wood wastes, and switchgrass.

5 Geographical Competitiveness Agricultural Residues – complementary products in the production of grain and oilseed crops and consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from data supplied by Nelson (2002), Agricultural Residues – complementary products in the production of grain and oilseed crops and consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from data supplied by Nelson (2002), Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and other removals, Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and other removals, Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at primary mills that convert round wood products into other wood products generally consisting of bark, fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues, Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at primary mills that convert round wood products into other wood products generally consisting of bark, fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues, Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal solid waste streams including such items as containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; and renovation and remodeling wastes, and Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal solid waste streams including such items as containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; and renovation and remodeling wastes, and Dedicated energy crops Dedicated energy crops

6

7 Residue composite at $30/dry ton

8 Residue composite at $50/dry ton

9 By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber. 25x’25 25x’25 Vision:

10 Land Use by Major Use Category, 2002. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service, 2004.

11 Feedstock for Energy: Converted to Energy

12 Land Use: 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (million acres )

13 Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2010

14 Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2015

15 Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2020

16 Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2025

17 Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2015

18 Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2020

19 Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2025

20 Changes in Farm Income and Government Payments (million $)

21 Change in Net Returns -- 2010

22 Change in Net Returns -- 2015

23 Change in Net Returns -- 2020

24 Change in Net Returns -- 2025

25 What is switchgrass? Native to the United States Native to the United States Warm Season Grass Warm Season Grass Managed using common agricultural practices Managed using common agricultural practices High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than traditional crops High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than traditional crops Planting-May to early June and can use no-till practices Planting-May to early June and can use no-till practices As a perennial, needs to be planted only once every 10 years or more As a perennial, needs to be planted only once every 10 years or more Harvested annually, either in a two harvest system or a one harvest system after the first frost, using conventional hay equipment Harvested annually, either in a two harvest system or a one harvest system after the first frost, using conventional hay equipment

26 What is the UT Switchgrass Project? The switchgrass project has three questions to address. The switchgrass project has three questions to address. What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass? What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass? What impact would a mature switchgrass feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector? What impact would a mature switchgrass feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector? What is the potential of converting switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel in a coal fired burner or some other conversion process? What is the potential of converting switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel in a coal fired burner or some other conversion process?

27 What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass? Several Steps Several Steps Plant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station land Plant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station land Develop recommendations from literature and from experience Develop recommendations from literature and from experience Contract with producers to grow switchgrass Contract with producers to grow switchgrass Analyze the experiences of the producers and those of the experiment station Analyze the experiences of the producers and those of the experiment station Feed information learned into the Second Question Feed information learned into the Second Question Use switchgrass grown to develop potential bio-energy market Use switchgrass grown to develop potential bio-energy market

28 Experiment Video Video Video Two experiments Two experiments Variety yields Variety yields Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X Landscape Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X Landscape Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per acre Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per acre Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180 pounds of N Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180 pounds of N 4 Different Landscapes 4 Different Landscapes

29 Switchgrass Yields, 2004-2006 Field N-21A-7 bottom 200420052006200420052006 Alamo0.99510.3Alamo0.771.42.1 SL-93-21.335.811.7SL-93-21.032.33.3 GA 9921.35510.3GA 9921.032.33.2 GA 9931.236.210.8GA 9931.092.94.6

30 Switchgrass Yields, 2004-2006 212A-7 Hillside 200420052006200420052006 Alamo0.943.858.5Alamo0.833.49.7 SL-93-21.134.78.4SL-93-21.284.48.2 GA 9921.293.97.2GA 9920.964.17.2 GA 9931.334.67.7GA 9931.094.710.4

31 What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass? We also conducted a survey of Tennessee producers. We also conducted a survey of Tennessee producers. Found that Currently (pre Bush January 2005 speech) 29% of producers willing to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. The other 45% would need additional information before deciding. Found that Currently (pre Bush January 2005 speech) 29% of producers willing to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. The other 45% would need additional information before deciding. Of the 45%, An estimated probit model indicated that 75% would likely say yes. Of the 45%, An estimated probit model indicated that 75% would likely say yes.

32 Questions?


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