0. Biomass, Biofuels, and Hydrogen Modules: SEDS Review
Max Henrion & Surya Swamy
May 7 and 8th 2009

1. Biomass, Biofuels and Hydrogen Sectors in Context of SEDS
Macroeconomics
Primary Energy
Converted Energy
End-Use
Biomass
Biofuels
Buildings
Coal
Electricity
Heavy Transportation
Macroeconomics
Natural Gas
Hydrogen
Industry
Oil
Liquid Fuels
Light Vehicles

2. Biomass Sector Data Flow
Incoming Data
Outgoing Data
Electricity
Max Biomass Supply
Electricity
Biomass
Biofuels
Biomass Demand
Biofuels
Biomass Price
Hydrogen
Hydrogen

3. Biomass: Major Assumptions
Biomass supply curves
from runs of Polysys 2006 aggregated from region to national level
Includes Agricultural residues, Forest residues, Energy crops, excludes Soy and Corn.
SEDS uses total biomass (excluding soy and corn) for
Energy crops increase from 0 in 2007 to by2030:
291 Mdt/y for Baseline and
609 Mdt/y for High scenario
It also offers AEO Biomass supply curves as an optional alternative.
Biomass consumed by
Biofuels (cellulosic ethanol)
Biomass to electricity, and
Biomass to hydrogen.

4. Projected maximum biomass: AEO & SEDS Baseline and High
SEDS PolySys High
SEDS PolySys Base
AEO
2006 max biomass supply is 270 Mdt/y (Million dry tons/year) (NEMS used 347 Mdt/y)
SEDS projects increase by 2030 to 633 Mdt/y for Baseline or 944 Mdt/y for High scenario with increase in energy crops (NEMS projects 388 Mdt/y)

5. Biomass supply curves
Price of biomass ($/biomass dry ton) as a function of demand level (million dry tons/year)
Based on SEDS/Polysys High scenario

6. Biomass demand by sector
For High oil price scenario – ramps to $245/bbl in 2030, no carbon cap or RPS

7. Biomass: Issues and planned work
It is not currently clear whether EERE Biomass program will support further work. We hope they will support:
Expert risk assessment of biomass supply curves, including uncertainties about:
Land availability for energy crops
Yield of new energy crop cultivars (R&D effects)
Changes (reduction?) in costs for cultivation, harvesting, and transport of high-volume e-crops to production plants

8. Biofuels Sector Data Flow
Incoming Data
Outgoing Data
Biomass
Biomass Demand
Biofuels
Biomass
Biomass Price
Ethanol Price
Liquid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Ethanol Demand
Max Ethanol Supply

9. Biofuels: Major assumptions
Expert risk assessments of performance for biochemical Cellulosic ethanol production
Uses projections from a pilot risk assessment conducted in Spring 2008 by Bob Wallace
Combination of expert assessments on TPMs combined from four experts and 27 runs of ASPEN+ on model of production plant for yield and costs
Goal years 2030, 2050
Base, Target, and Overtarget programs
Zero Learning by doing
For illustration we assume Target and Overtarget R&D Programs accelerate performance by 2 and 4 years respectively, relative to the Base Program
Default assumes $0.50/gal subsidy for ethanol for corn and cellulosic.

10. Projected cost of cellulosic ethanol
Gasoline
Cellulosic ethanol 10, 50, 90%iles
Corn ethanol
Green lines are 10, 50, 90th percentiles of biochemical cellulosic ethanol costs, based on pilot risk analysis in 2008, Target R&D Program.
Compared with corn ethanol and gasoline (high oil cost scenario), $0.50 ethanol subsidy, no carbon cap or carbon tax.

11. Effect of DOE R&D Programs on cellulosic ethanol costs
Gasoline: High oil scenario
Cellulosic ethanol Base, target, & overtarget R&D programs
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol costs for Base Program, Target DOE R&D program, and Overtarget R&D Program (accelerating results by 3 years and 6 years relative to Base industry-only R&D.

12. Cellulosic ethanol cost breakdown
Cellulosic ethanol costs for Target DOE R&D program broken down to capital, O&M, and Fuel (biomass) costs – assuming modest biomass costs.

13. Fuel consumption of gasoline and ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
Gasoline
Consumption of liquid fuels for vehicles.
High oil scenario $240/bbl by No RPS or Carbon
Target cellulosic ethanol program, medium cost.

14. Consumption by vehicle fuel type
Hydrogen
CNG/LPG
E85
Gasoline
Units G gge/y = billion gallons gasoline equivalent per year
Assumes DOE Target program, high oil cost, $0.50 ethanol subsidy, no carbon tax.

15. Biofuels: Issues and planned work
Add Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policies
Extend biofuels module, using expert risk assessments of other technologies:
Redo biochemical cellulosic ethanol with improved structure and assessment protocol
Thermochemical methods with gasification/pyrolysis for cellulosic ethanol
Expand modeling of corn ethanol cost and supply
Add other transportation fuels from cellulosic biomass, such as methanol or butanol via Fischer-Tropsch process, and methane (biogas)

16. Hydrogen Sector Data Flow
Outgoing Data
Incoming Data
Biomass
Biomass
Biomass Price
Biomass Demand
Natural Gas
Nat. Gas Commercial Price
Nat. Gas Commercial Dmd
Natural Gas
Nat. Gas Industrial Dmd
Nat. Gas Industrial Price
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electricity
Nat. Gas Electric Dmd
Nat. Gas Electric Price
Light Vehicles
Light Vehicles
Hydrogen Price
Hydrogen Demand

17. Hydrogen: Major assumptions
2008 expert risk assessments
Central biomass to hydrogen
Central natural gas reforming
Distributed natural gas reforming (at fueling station)
Base program (no DOE R&D) assumes no progress
Target Program for Goal years: 2015, 2025
No overtarget program
Zero learning by doing after 2025
Delivery costs
Developed with Frances Wood, Onlocation, Inc.
based on a reduced form of the H2 module from NEMS
costs reducing over time, and as a function of market penetration

18. Levelized cost of delivered hydrogen by technology
Costs for central station biomass and SMR (reforming natural gas) include hydrogen delivery costs.

19. Breakdown of levelized costs for Central biomass to H
Distribution (delivery) costs dominate, but reduce over time

20. Hydrogen distribution costs
Costs reduce over time from 2007 to 2017
Costs reduce as a function of market penetration (hydrogen as a percent of total liquid automotive fuel by GGE)
Costs are estimated separately for urban and rural areas

21. Consumption by fuel type for light vehicles
Hydrogen
CNG/LPG
E85
Gasoline
Units G gge/y = billion gallons gasoline equivalent per year
Assumes DOE Target program, high oil cost, $0.50 ethanol subsidy, no carbon cap.

22. Hydrogen: Issues and planned work
Expert risk assessments in 2009
Redo central station biomass to hydrogen
Add central wind turbine electrolysis
Add distributed ethanol reformer
Add learning by doing (LBD) post 2025
Expand model of delivery costs
Working with Frances Wood
Based on more detailed distribution cost models
Disaggregate rural vs. urban more carefully based on quantities available
Add simple uncertainty in delivery costs, based on interviews, but not formal expert elicitation