Presentation on theme: "Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe INFORSE-Europe Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.orgwww.inforse.org."— Presentation transcript:
Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe INFORSE-Europe Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.orgwww.inforse.org International Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe is a network of 55 NGOs. INFORSE-Europe is supported by EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002
Vision 2050 - Background The world energy system: is beyond the environmental limits does not provide basic energy needs as light and healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s population To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century We should provide all with basic energy needs and allow developing countries to develop, including use of cheap energy supply INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Environmental Limit: Climate Change To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC century, we must limit global CO 2 emissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century = 35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC) The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of 3.5ºC.
A Global Sustainable Scenario After 2000: 240 GtC INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy 1990- 2000: 64 GtC
Scenario: Energy Services INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy Energy Services per capita
Energy Demand Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced several times before 2050: new generations of equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology learning can drive prices down. One exception is houses. In EU houses could use only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m 2 For transport is expected increase in efficiency from todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions together with electrical driven vehicles. Energy service demand will increase, also in industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.
Primary Energy (TWh/y) INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Energy Supply Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000 MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe less afterwards Large wind power development programs are cost- effective: extra costs today will be paid back with future cost reductions due to technology learning. Some sites give cost-effective electricity today. Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then grow 25% pr. year Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total Biomass can be used as transport fuel INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Renewable Energy Potential INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Economy - DK scenario until 2030 The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than business as usual. expected lower growth in energy services: need for decoupling of economy and energy services INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Example - Slovakia INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy OBS: Preliminary data
Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials : INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy OBS: Preliminary data
Energy Infrastructure Electricity grid still needed, as today Electricity grid needs more regulation with many decentralised production units ”intelligent grid” Need for electricity storage to compensate wind & PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark probably chemical storage after 2030 New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps, international energy trade Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier Because of large learning rates for the new technologies, minimal costs. INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
More on Infrastructure decentralised power production, to use local renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP) more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030 gas demand stable until 2025, then decline hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to replace gas where local renewables insufficient some gas networks can be used for hydrogen heat networks to remain in densely built areas INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
Vision 2050 simple spread-sheet model Based on energy balance Trends for RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval 2002 Denmark, Slovakia and EU 2003 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)