Living with our changing climate Session: Adaptation and initiatives supporting adaptation CSIRO Climate Research and IOCI

CSIRO Climate Capabilities CSIRO’s long-standing multi-divisional research and expertise:  Ocean processes and dynamics  Atmospheric processes  Atmospheric chemistry  Boundary layer and land-surface interactions  Hydrology  Climate modelling  Climate impacts  Pests and invasive species  Climate and water  Climate and ecosystem/agriculture responses  Mitigation and abatement of greenhouse gas emissions

CSIRO Climate Capabilities  Core CSIRO Climate Research and Applications: Observations, process studies, system studies, climate model development, decision support systems, applications to all sectors of the economy (from urban to rural, from industry to ecosystems)  Wealth from Oceans Flagship: Developing Ocean Prediction Capability  Water for a Healthy Country Flagship: Ensuring Sustainable Use of Australia’s Water Resources  Energy Transformed Flagship: Building Capacity for Greenhouse Mitigation  Australian Climate Change Science Program: Building National Capacity to face Climate Change

CSIRO Climate Partnerships CSIRO’s key partnerships:  Australian Bureau of Meteorology  Australian Universities Commonwealth Government:  Australian Greenhouse Office  Royal Australian Navy WA Government:  Indian Ocean Climate Initiative  Western Australian Marine Science Institution State and Territory Governments & Industry clients

Indian Ocean Climate Initiative  Conceived, developed in and for Western Australia; highly effective partnership (WA State Agencies; CSIRO; Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre; Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Office)  Combines observations, modelling and applications: creating new knowledge about Western Australia’s climate  Focussed on the south-west  Building regional capacity Strategic research to assist decision making by the State partners Science priorities determined by a user-driven panel

Climate Change Adaptation Approaches to climate change adaptation:  Requires research on both climate change and climate variability  Requires an integrated multisectoral approach  Is directed at identifying vulnerability  Is not a linear process  We can’t afford to wait until the science is ‘complete’  We can learn from current adaptive strategies Moving from past forms of projections to probabilistic projections and risk assessment methodologies

Climate Change Adaptation Identifying vulnerability Using adaptation to mitigate vulnerability

Climate Change Adaptation Climate system Impacted activity Socio- economic system Current climate Future climate Future adaptations Current adaptations New methodologies do not follow linear, sequential approaches

Climate Change Adaptation Four stages of adaptation:  Autonomous adaptation (we are still within coping range)  Generic adaptation (we need interventions, but the generic level is sufficient)  Specific adaptation (interventions have to be specific to industries and to locations)  Transformative adaptation (when the change is too far outside the current range, hard decisions will have to be made) Mitigation may help stave off the need for transformative adaptation

CSIRO Climate Change Projections CSIRO climate projections 2030 & 2070

Probabilistic Projections P>1 o C Warming  9 GCM Patterns  6 IPCC Emission Scenarios  3 Climate Sensitivities 162 Scenarios Probability of a 1 degree warming by 2030

Probabilistic Projections >0% Decrease Probability of a decrease in rainfall larger than 0% by 2030

Probabilistic Projections >5% Decrease Probability of a decrease in rainfall larger than 5% by 2030

CSIRO Activities in the West  Regional climate change, regional climate variability & SW WA rainfall/water resources  Gnangara Mound, Avon valley water  Indian Ocean dynamics, Indonesian throughflow, and impact on WA climate  Greenhouse mitigation by reducing methane emissions from livestock  Livestock and pasture production for the future  Sustainable plantation forestry, carbon sequestration  Air Quality investigations for Wagerup, Burrup Peninsula  Oil & Gas Technology (Energy Research Alliance)  Marine Research (Strategic Research Fund for the Marine Environment)  Western Australian Marine Science Institution

WA Stakeholders & Collaborators CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research  WA Government (whole of Gov’t, and specific departments: Fisheries, Conservation and Land Management, EPA,...)  WA Universities (Curtin, Western Australia, Murdoch, Edith Cowan: 14 students)  Coastal and Aquaculture CRCs  Water Corporation  Woodside Energy  Alcoa  Worsley Alumina  Western Power  Griffin Energy

Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Report Priority vulnerable systems and regions  Ecosystems and Biodiversity  Agriculture  Water Supply  Settlements and Emergency Services  Energy  Regions: Cairns & Great Barrier Reef Murray Darling Basin South West Western Australia “regional adaptation planning requires coordination across all levels of government and the involvement of industry, scientists and community leaders” Allen Consulting Group