1. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal dynamical prediction of coral bleaching risk for reef management Claire Spillman & Aurel Griesser Session 10: Modelling reef futures 9 July 2012 www.cawcr.gov.au 2012 International Coral Reef Symposium Cairns, Australia

2. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Observed and projected annual GBR mean SST under IPCC scenarios A2 & B1 (Lough et al 2006; Donner et al. 2009) Warming oceans High ocean temperatures are the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events Global warming likely to increase bleaching frequency and severity of bleaching events Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Donner et al 2005, 2009; Lough et al 2006 How to best manage our coral reefs under climate change?

3. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Coral reef management DaysWeeks to months Decades to centuries Weather forecasting Satellite nowcasts Seasonal forecasting Climate forecasting Climate change Activate early warning system Plan for upcoming season Policy development Changes to zoning Long term planning Close reef areas Survey bleached areas Flag reefs for monitoring Schedule surveys Coordinate activities Extreme weather plans Most useful for proactive marine management Minimal warning time Reactive management Early window for implementation of strategies to minimise impacts Long term planning Better managed marine resources have improved improved resilience under climate change Decision timescales

4. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal forecasting Seasonal timescale most useful for marine managers Provides an early window for implementation of management strategies to minimise impacts Dynamical models can incorporate climate change signals unlike statistical models Better managed marine resources have improved resilience under climate change Surveying bleached corals Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)

5. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012 Global coupled ensemble ocean-atmosphere and data assimilation seasonal prediction system Ocean grid 0.5-1.5° north-south by 2° east-west Forecasts out to 9 months 33 member ensemble Probabilistic forecasts Run in real-time since 2002 Upgrade to POAMA-2 http://poama.bom.gov.au Atmospheric Model (BAM3.0) Atmosphere Initial Conditions E 180 o W90 o E Coupler (OASIS) 90 o W0o0o Atmosphere & Land Initial Conditions Ocean Model (ACOM2) Ocean Initial Conditions

6. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Great Barrier Reef forecasts First operational dynamical seasonal forecasts for coral bleaching risk in the world Operational seasonal POAMA SST forecasts for the GBR produced in real-time and available online Provides advance warning of potential bleaching conditions Component of the GBRMPA Coral Bleaching Response Plan Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012 http://poama.bom.gov.au

7. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Operational: Spatial GBR SSTA GBR SSTA Index Operational products hosted by Ocean Services Experimental: Degree Heating Months Probabilistic forecasts Google Earth products http://poama.bom.gov.au Great Barrier Reef products Spillman 2011

8. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Useful skill up to 3 months ahead during summer Spillman & Alves (2011), Spillman et al (2012) January February March Summer forecast skill

9. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology GBR Bleaching Events Spillman et al (2012) 1998 bleaching event2002 bleaching event NovDec Jan Feb NovDecJanFeb

10. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Degree Heating Month skill Spillman et al (2011), Spillman et al (2011) Bleaching events El Nino events

11. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Development of a suite of experimental seasonal forecast products for coral bleaching risk in the Western Pacific Project within the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science Adaptation Program (PACCSAP) Skill evaluation of model forecasts of extreme ocean temperatures An improved understanding of the large scale climate drivers Support and in-country training for Partner Countries to assist decision making and monitoring of anomalous ocean conditions likely to cause coral bleaching Forecasts for the Western Pacific PACCSAP Partner Countries

12. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Model skill in the Western Pacific Model Skill: DJF (L=0) Model Skill: JJA (L=0) Model-Persistence: JJA (L=0) Model-Persistence: DJF (L=0)

13. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for the Western Pacific under development Potential experimental forecast products:  SST & anomalies  Probabilities  Thermal stress  Country indexes Forecast delivery

14. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Benefits & uses of reef forecasts Improve community & stakeholder awareness of how climate influences local marine systems Advance warning of potential bleaching events allowing for proactive management & response Identification of future threats for long term planning & policy development Gain an understanding of the processes occurring & large scale climate drivers Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)

15. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Latest real-time forecasts.. http://poama.bom.gov.au

16. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Future for coral reefs Global warming likely to increase coral bleaching frequency & severity POAMA seasonal forecast products are invaluable tools for proactive coral reef management Manage for better reef resilience in the face of a changing climate Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Spillman 2011; Spillman et al 2012 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)

17. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Further information POAMA: http://poama.bom.gov.auhttp://poama.bom.gov.au PACCSAP: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/ Operational forecasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/ Spillman et al. (2012) IJC, DOI:10.1002/joc.3486 Griesser & Spillman (2012) CAWCR Res Lett, in press Spillman (2011) J Oper Ocean, 4(1):13-22. Spillman (2011) CAWCR Res Lett, 6:34-39 Spillman et al. (2011) MWR, 139:317-331. Spillman et al. (2011) BAMS, 92: 1586-1591 Spillman et al. (2009) Coral Reefs, 28:197-206 Maynard et al. (2009) J Env Manage, 44:1-11

18. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Dr Claire Spillman Research Scientist Phone: +61 9669 8105 Email: c.spillman@bom.gov.auc.spillman@bom.gov.au Web: www.cawcr.gov.au Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au