1. www.greenhouse.wa.gov.au Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: South West WA

2. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: South West WA Greenhouse Strategy Action 5.5 “An integrated global climate change impact and assessment strategy for the south west of WA will be prepared through collaborative action by the AGO, the State Government, local governments, stakeholders and the public.”

3. Why AGO involvement? “… to provide both a framework for adaptation [in the south west of WA], but also to develop techniques for regional climate responses in other regions of Australia and overseas.”

4. Why AGO involvement? Coastal populations & industry Agriculture Biodiversity Water supply Tourism Forestry Fisheries SW WA: one of three nationally identified priority regions for integrated assessment of climate change vulnerability:

5. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: South West WA The Bonus: 7 years of IOCI research and partnerships.

6. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: South West WA What is an integrated assessment? How do you do one?

7. … a social process in which expert knowledge is organised, evaluated, integrated and presented to inform policy and other decisions. Integrated assessment …

8. How do you do one? Integrated? Multi-sectoral: What not to include? Cross-sectoral: Drivers? Conflicts? Opportunities?

9. What is the best CSIRO advice in 2005? “Under the most optimistic future greenhouse gases scenarios, significant warming and decreased rainfall is projected for SW WA.”

10. Climate change – or global change / CO2 increase …

11. Differential sectoral vulnerability? 15% decrease in SW WA rainfall in the mid-70s –crop yields increased. –stream flow decreased by 50% -> Perth is already water constrained.

12. How does God invest in biodiversity? What dies? What lives?

13. What is our regional planning objective? … business liquidation? … speculation? … investment?

14. Secondary effects through other factors? Storms, wind? Lightning? Fire? Pest infestations? Species invasions? Salinity impacts? Impacts to overseas producers or markets?

15. How do you do one? Critical features of process: Workshop: Dec 2004 Effective management Clear delivery path “Systems” approach Well defined terms Define information needs early: Economic Values Community links Top down / bottom up

16. How do you do one? … credible, salient and legitimate … Critical features of process:

17. Critical features of recommendations: Good scientific basis … Good link between science and reality … Good fit between benefits and costs … Within the boundaries of the imaginable …

18. 1.… Historical sectoral review … 2. … public engagement … Stage One: What can we learn from SW WA climate change?

19. Stage One: Report on experience of climate change in SW WA: draft by mid 2006; final by Oct 2006 Plan for Stage Two – March 2006 Climate scenario needs Consultation processes Analytical techniques How to integrate sectors Management and governance Partnerships; localities / region

20. What experience: Was there any apparent capacity to have predicted the change in climate? When was the change perceived? When was there a overt response to the change per se. What was the nature of the response: Control? Adaptation? …? What characteristics indicate an effective response?

21. Stage Two: When climate is a variable or changing factor: What are the sectoral vulnerabilities / opportunities? What are the cross-sectoral conflicts, opportunities and drivers? What will be the key decisions? What are the options: locally, regionally? What policy tools would be most effective?

22. Key Personnel Ross George (DAWA) Project Leader Jo Molin (DAWA) Project Manager DPC, CALM, DoE, FPC, DPI, Health AGO WALGA IOCI CSIRO BoM