CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA’S ENERGY POLICY D R. A NSHU B HARADWAJ C ENTER F OR S TUDY O F S CIENCE, T ECHNOLOGY & P OLICY, B ANGALORE ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY : TRENDS AND POLICY JULY 22, 2011

I NDIA ’ S PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION : A SNAPSHOT CSTEP July 2011 Source : BP statistical review of world energy, 2011; CSTEP In 2010 alone, India’s primary energy consumption grew by 9.2%

I NDIA ' S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS Annual GDP growth projection : 8 – 9% Elasticity of electricity : GDP ~ 0.95 Net electricity generation required in 2020 : 1850 billion units – per capita electricity consumption in 2020 : ~ 1200 kWh – Still, well below world average of 2800 kWh India has announced intent to reduce CO2 intensity: GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020 Multiple objectives for Indian energy policy – Access for all – Reliability – Low cost – Low carbon – Energy Security CSTEP July 2011

E LECTRIC P OWER Current Capacity : 173,855 MW (utility) – 5th largest in the world Low per capita electricity consumption – India717 kWh – US14,000 kWh – China2500 kWh – World2800 kWh Peak shortage~ 15% 800,000 MW in 2030 – 40 – ~ 25,000 MW per year Environmental concerns – India 3rd largest emitter of CO2 behind China and US – 38% of emissions from power sector Energy security concerns – 67% power from coal-based thermal plants - need to depend on imports – Prototype breeder reactors to exploit thorium reserves CSTEP July 2011

E NVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS : GHG EMISSIONS IN I NDIA (2007) CSTEP July 2011

E NERGY RESOURCE AVAILABILITY IN I NDIA SourceCapital cost (crores/MW) Emissions (t CO2-eq/Mwh) ReservesLongevity Coal MT70 years Oil MT~ 10 years Gas TCM~ 20 years Hydro6- 20 (Site and size dependant) GWNA Nuclear ,000 tonnes of Uranium ~ 200 tonnes of Pu 40 years with Uranium CSTEP July 2011 Source : BP statistical review report, NHPC,NTPC

E NERGY SECURITY CONCERNS CSTEP July 2011 Source : Telegraph, FT

P ROJECTED FUEL MIX IN 2020 Required capacity in 2020 assuming 8% growth = 387,280 MW in BAU scenario CSTEP July 2011 Source : Interim report, Planning commission 2011

How do we grow to ~ 2,000 billion kWh by 2020 How do we get 3,00 billion kWh of low-carbon power? What fuel options & technologies? Wind Nuclear, Solar Hydro Bio-fuels Carbon Sequestration Hydrogen & fuel cells Hybrid cars Investments, research, policies? H OW TO G ROW AND BE S USTAINABLE ? CSTEP July 2011

W IND POWER Power proportional to V 3 Cost of generation reasonable: ~ Rs 3 per kWh – Economics sensitive to wind speeds World total installed 194,000 MW India: – Potential: 50,000 MW based on hub height of 50 m and 2% land usage – Recent studies offer reassessed potential at 80m 6-7% land usage Onshore - 676, 000 MW Offshore - 214,000 MW – Intermittent; grid stability is a concern CSTEP July 2011 China44, 733 MW US40,180 MW Germany27,215 MW Spain20,676 MW India13,000 MW India - 5th in wind capacity

SOLAR POWER JNNSM launched in 2010 targets 22,000 MW by 2022 – Phase 1 ( until March 2013) Target of 1300 MW : 800 MW PV and 500 MW CSP 25 years of guaranteed feed in tariff – Off-grid PV Target of 2000 MW by 2022 Rural applications where grid is unviable or unreachable – Challenges High nominal cost of generation : ~ Rs 15 per kWh Water scarcity issues for CSP Requirement of skilled personnel CSTEP July 2011

N UCLEAR P OWER Installed Capacity4780 MW Generation~ 23 Billion kWh (2.5 % of total) Domestic Uranium reserves~ 61,000 Tons – Poor quality ore(0.01% % Uranium) Large Thorium deposits – But, Thorium is fertile and has to be converted to fissile U233 in a reactor Phase Nuclear Program – Phase IBuild Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors using domestic Uranium – Phase IIReprocess spent fuel from Phase I to get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors – Phase IIIUse U233 (obtained from Thorium) and use it with Plutonium Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW PHWR for 40 years – Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining constraints CSTEP July 2011

I NDIAN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM TypeOperatingProjections (2020) Projections (2030) Heavy Water Reactors 4,460 MW 10,000 MW Light Water Reactors 320 MW 9,300 MW22,000 MW Fast Breeder Reactors - 1,500 MW Total4780 MW 20,800 MW33,500 MW Nuclear capacity presently under construction : 5300 MW CSTEP June 2011

E LECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS : COMPARISON Source : LBNL, CERC, CSTEP & NPCIL CSTEP July 2011

D EMAND - SIDE MEASURES : SMART GRIDS Indian Institute of Science & CSTEP – “Smart grid” test bed in IISc campus – Consortium of technology provider companies Ministry of Power (under R-APDRP)

B IOFUEL P OTENTIAL India’s total land area328 million hectares (mha) – Cultivated142 mha – Cultivable wasteland30 mha – Rice40 mha – Wheat 26 mha Hazardous to divert agricultural area for bio-fuels. If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels, – Produce about 30 million tons of bio-oil – 10% of oil demand by Advisable to cultivate on such a large area? CSTEP July 2011

E THANOL O PPORTUNITIES Increase yield of sugarcane using drip irrigation & fertigation – Present average yield~ 80 tons per ha – Using drip irrigation & fertigation150 tons per ha Sweet sorghum: – Less water intensive than sugarcane – Two crops a year Cellulosic ethanol from agro-forest residues such as bagasse, rice husk, wood chips, crop residues. – Technology needs to be developed CSTEP July 2011

W HAT CAN 1 H ECTARE D O ? Bio-Fuels indirectly use solar energy Why not do it directly? Solar Option 1 Sugarcane Option 2 Corn Ethanol Option 3 Jatropha Option 4 Sweet Sorghum Option 5 Solar Sugarcane: 80 tons No Sugar Cane juice used to make ethanol. Ethanol: 6000 Liter per hectare Corn Yield: 7500 Kg per hectare Ethanol: 0.37 Liter per kg 2800 Liter per hectare 2000 to 3000 Trees per hectare Seed yield: 1 to 2 Kg per tree Oil Yield: 1 to 1.5 Ton per hectare Stalk yield: 35 – 50 tons per hectare Juice Extraction 45 – 50% Ethanol: 2500 to 3500 Liters per hectare Average daily radiation: 5- 6 kWh/m2 250 days of sunshine 50% area covered by PV panels 10% Efficiency of solar cells CSTEP July 2011

L AND REQUIRED ( HA /1000 MW) Source : NPCIL & CSTEP CSTEP July 2011

POTENTIAL R&D DOMAINS New and affordable materials for photovoltaic Clean coal technologies; carbon capture and sequestration Low-speed wind power Cellulosic ethanol Efficient and affordable hybrids, electric vehicles Energy storage – efficient batteries and condensers Demand side management of power Trained human resource CSTEP July 2011