Session 3: Drivers, processes and policy assessments Martin Herold and Niki de Sy Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Environmental Protection Authority Workshop for developing a roadmap for an Ethiopian national REDD+ MRV framework

Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation A synthesis report for REDD+ policymakers Aim/goal of report Commissioned by United Kingdom Departments for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and International development (DFID) and The Government of Norway’s International Climate and Forest initiative.

Drivers of deforestation and degradation Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact Important to address them separately and examine them at various scales for specific analysis and intervention strategies

Direct or proximate drivers

Indirect or underlying drivers Economic growth Population growth / Urban growth Demand for timber and agricultural products Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity Poverty and insecure tenure Economic growth based on export of primary commodities and increasing demand for timber and agricultural products in a globalizing economy Population growth / Urban growth Poor governance, corruption, low capacity of public forestry agencies, land tenure uncertainties and inadequate national resource planning Future: global urbanization, developping country prosperity, changing food consumption patterns, growth in developping country regional markets for key commodities

Role of drivers in national forest monitoring

Importance of monitoring drivers Identifying forest change drivers (locally, nationally, internationally) is needed to: help track their activities over time, attribute emissions to specific causes, design dedicated mitigation actions that address them, assess the impact of mitigation actions, facilitate engagement with non-forest sectors

Analysing and assessing proximate drivers Linking forest (area) changes to specific activities and follow-up land use is essential for assessing drivers Spatial context and location, and other features (e.g. roads, settlements) can help in interpretation Remote sensing analysis Local and regional knowledge (experts and communities), ground observations GHG emissions from drivers: commonly not available on national level Type and drivers have great influence on net forest carbon impacts – and the way these impacts can be measured and monitored

Carbon stock changes due to different deforestation and degradation processes

Drivers: REDD+ policy development and implementation

Interventions at relevant scales and key actors

Adequate approaches and information Countries should: Consider and integrate of information beyond the forest sector: track driver activity, social and environmental safeguards, and evaluation of trade-offs and livelihood implications Recognize linkages between REDD+ and emerging agricultural mitigation and adaptation—orchestrated and complementary funding streams to countries Established uniform criteria on land-use classifications + capacities of sectoral and regional information systems

Conclusions: International level Countries focused on national and local level drivers, but face international drivers that are expected to increase in pressure. Promote government-facilitated commitments on sustainable commodities, public-private partnerships (can influence indirect land use change and foreign direct investment). International information sharing: cross-border trade, domestic and trans-boundary drivers, best practices and lessons learned, periodic global assessments. Recognize linkages between REDD+ and emerging agricultural mitigation and adaptation—orchestrated and complementary funding streams to countries (link and integrate REDD+ activities and NAMAs, particularly agriculture).

A summary for Ethiopia

Key Direct drivers (R-PP) Conversion of forests to agricultural land The impact is set to increase, as agricultural land requirements will increase by an estimated 19 MHa by 2030 in a ‘business as usual‘ growth path, spurred by strong governmental support to develop agriculture and sustained demographic growth of 2-3 % per year. Unsustainable fuel wood consumption As the evolution of fuel wood consumption is strongly correlated to population growth, its impact on degradation is expected to reach, in a ‘business as usual‘ scenario, 22Mt per year by 2030, as the Ethiopian population reaches 130 Mln people. Other: logging, clearing to convert to pastureland, and clearing to build infrastructures.

Underlying drivers (R-PP) Deficiencies in the regulatory and institutional environment: Unclear user rights, low empowerment of local communities absence of benefit sharing mechanisms ‘open access’ mentality and conversion to agriculture Inappropriate regulation, or the absence of means of implementation, combined with the absence of a strong, dedicated forestry institution, failed to protect forests. lack of resources (i.e. financial, human and institutional capacity) inherent deficiency of the forest regulatory instrument resulted in widespread illegal/uncontrolled use of the forest This, combined with irregularities and inconsistencies in the implementation of bans on forest products, created a disincentive for forest-dependent people to invest in forest management/protection because of a lack of security over future returns.

Planned interventions Current strategies aimed at addressing deforestation and degradation in Ethiopia within the current legal and policy framework can be divided into: (1) Plantation forest of exotic species, (2) Agroforestry, (3) Area closures of deforested areas for natural forest regeneration, (4) Protected areas of natural forest, National Parks (5) CDM project areas related to plantations or reforestations,

Planned interventions (continued) (6) Devolution of forest management through participatory forest management (PFM), (7) Traditional/customary forest management practices, (8) REDD+ pilots (9) National Bio fuel Strategy: national biogas program, rural electrification [renewable energy], dissemination of fuel efficient improved stoves (10) Food Security Strategy (11) Integration of REDD+ into budget, laws, policy, strategy, program, plan and projects