1. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 1 Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation Module developers: Erika Romijn, Wageningen University Martin Herold, Wageningen University Country examples: National analysis of drivers of deforestation in: 1.Democratic republic of the Congo 2.Indonesia Photo credit: AFP V1, April 2015 Creative Commons License

2. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 2 1. Democratic republic of the Congo (DRC) – National analysis of drivers of deforestation  DRC is actively participating in REDD+ and performed a national analysis of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, this included:  Qualitative assessments ● By civil society ● By UNEP  Quantitative assessment ● UCL (University Leuven)  Synthesis of all studies

3. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 3 Qualitative analysis by civil society  Extensive literature review  Interviews with 4-7 experts per province, to list the 10 most important direct and indirect drivers per province  Direct drivers consolidated at national level: 1.Slash and burn agriculture practised by farmers 2.Local wood consumption 3.Charcoal and fuelwood / firewood  Indirect drivers consolidated at national level: 1.Population growth 2.Poverty of local population (farmers) 3.Administrative deficit

4. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 4 Qualitative analysis by UNEP  Selection of 40 deforestation sites: Literature review, field observations and interviews with experts and different actors  Direct drivers consolidated at national level: 1.Slash and burn agriculture 2.Charcoal production 3.Causes related to demographics and phenomena such as wildfire  Indirect drivers consolidated at national level: 1.Population fluctuation 2.Institutional aspects (successive wars) 3.Economic aspects (poverty, youth employment)

5. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 5 Quantitative study on the relation between direct activities and explanatory variables  Object-based segmentation combined with non- supervised classification of Landsat satellite images produced land cover maps for 1990, 2000, 2005  Analysis of land cover changes for 1990-2000 and 2000- 2005  35 explanatory variables grouped into 8 categories of underlying causes: infrastructure, agriculture, forest exploitation, economic factors, transport axes, demographic factors, socio-politic factors and biophysical factors

6. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 6 Quantitative study on the relation between direct activities and explanatory variables  Linking land cover (deforestation and degradation) changes to explanatory factors: ● Univariate statistical analysis to quantify the influence of the different explanatory variables during the two different time periods: 1990-2000 and 2000-2005 ● Multivariate statistical analysis to create explanatory models for combinations of underlying causes of deforestation

7. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 7 Direct drivers, explanatory factors and underlying causes of deforestation Direct driversExplanatory variablesIndirect drivers 1 Slash and burn agriculture Biophysical factors: degraded forests Population growth 2Local wood consumption Biophysical factors: fragmentation Institutional aspects (political decisions, mismanagement, civil wars) 3 Charcoal and Fuelwood / firewood Agriculture: rural complex Infrastructure & Urbanization 4MiningTransport roads Economic aspects: economic crisis, unemployment, poverty 5BushfireDemographic factors: population growth

8. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 8 2. Indonesia – Drivers of deforestation analysis using national data How to deriver quantitative driver information based on land cover maps? 1. Starting point: Time series of land cover maps

9. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 9 Land cover classification (MOFOR data) Primary forest 1Primary upland forest 2Primary mangrove forest 3Primary swamp forest Degraded forest 4Secondary upland forest 5Secondary mangrove forest 6Secondary swamp forest 7 Forest plantation (i.e. Eucalypt, Acacia, Teak) 8Bushes / Shrubland 9Bushy swamp Non-forest 10Plantation (oil palm) 11Savanna 12Upland agriculture 13 Upland agriculture mixed with bush 14Rice field 15 Cultured fisheries / Fishpond 16Settlement / developed land 17Transmigration 18Open land 19Mining / mines 20Water body 21Swamp 22Airport Using the FAO forest definition: Forest > 0.5 ha Tree canopy cover > 10% Tree height > 5m forest being the predominant land use in the area

10. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 10 2. Map deforestation areas for subsequent time periods ● Forest, defined following the FAO forest definition ● Deforestation, degradation, reforestation/regeneration: Primary Forest Degraded Forest Non-Forest Classes Forest Non-Forest degradation deforestation reforestation/ regeneration

11. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 11 Deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia between 2000-2009

12. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 12 3. Link deforested areas to post-forest land use Mapping direct drivers: land cover following deforestation Post-forest land useLand cover class Commercial agriculturePlantation (oil palm) Upland agriculture Rice field Subsistence agricultureUpland agriculture mixed with bush Urban & InfrastructureSettlement / developed land Transmigration Airport / harbor MiningMining / mines AquacultureCultured fisheries / fishpond Open land

13. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 13 Drivers of deforestation 2000-2009: Post-forest land use using the FAO forest definition

14. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 14 4. Quantify the different drivers of deforestation: for the time period 2000-2009 DriverArea (km 2 ) Commercial agriculture 19301.63 Subsistence agriculture 16398.55 Urban & Infrastructure 252.18 Mining769.72 Aquaculture1090.94 Open land8788.51 Data source: MOFOR, 2011 Distribution of different drivers in terms of area change

15. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 15 5. Possibility to link different drivers to GHG emissions  Reporting of carbon and other GHG emissions for each driver is encouraged  Following information required: ● Carbon density (emission factor) for each different forest type, to quantify total emissions (= area of deforestation X emission factor) – See modules 2.3 and 2.5 ● Additional emissions related to specific drivers, these may occur after the deforestation and depend on the type of driver

16. Module 1.3 Assessing and analyzing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ training materials by GOFC-GOLD, Wageningen University, World Bank FCPF 16 Recommended modules as follow up  Module 2.1 to proceed with REDD+ measuring and monitoring and focus on monitoring activity data for forests using remote sensing  Modules 3. to learn more about REDD+ assessment and reporting