Tey Nai Peng Ng Sor Tho Tan Pei Pei (Faculty of Economics and Administration University of Malaya)

Outline of presentation Inter-relationships between population and development Use of population projection Demographic trends Data and method Population projection Estimating the requirements for education, health and the economy Discussion and conclusion

Population and development PoA adopted at 1994 ICPD -a new strategy to meet the needs of individuals rather than on achieving demographic targets. People are producers (human resources) and consumers (whose needs must be met). Past Malaysia Plans incorporated population factors.

Use of Population Projection Development planning to improve the wellbeing of the population, and business planning (domestic market) Meeting the demands for education and health, infrastructure, housing, jobs and other basic goods and services Changing age structure have important implications for marketing and employment planning Use to set the time frame to achieve a target population – e.g. Convince the government that the 70 million population is to be achieved in 115 years

Demographic trends - ROG Population growing at around for most of the time post Independence, but slowed down to 2% between 2000 and Population hit 30 million mark in February 2014, at a annualized rate of 1.56%, slower pace but still increasing by 455 thousand persons annually

Declining total fertility rate – replacement level fertility

Consequences of demographic transition Low birth rate and death rate Changes in the age structure, ethnic composition Labour shortage (fertility reduction and rapid economic growth) Influx of migrant workers

Data and methods Data from population censuses, vital statistics and social statistics bulletin Cohort component method – births, deaths and migration DemProj and Rapid under the Spectrum system developed by Futures Group for UN

Input data for population projection TFR Male life expectancy Female life expectancy Immigration Male8,657 Female8,242

Input data for education (assumed) Education Primary school enrolment rate (%)96100 Students per primary school teacher1211 Students per primary school360 Recurrent expenditure per primary school student (RM)4,0334,6885,3446,000 Secondary school enrolment rate (%) Students per secondary school teacher Students per secondary school1,000 Recurrent expenditure per secondary school student (RM)4,3215,5476,7738,000

Input data for health Health Population per doctor Population per nurse Population per health center/clinic3,8003,3802,9402,500 Population per hospital75,25766,83858,41950,000 Population per hospital bed Annual health expenditure per person (RM)1,2001,8002,4003,000

Input data for economic sector Male labour force participation rate80.5 Female labour force participation rate Base year gross domestic product (GDP - RM Millions)1,000,000 Annual growth rate in GDP %

Population projection up to2040

Comparing with DOSM and UN UN projection – population will peak at 44.2 million in 2070 Authors’ Own Projection DOSMUN

Summary statistics (1) CBR per CDR per CRNI percent GR percent Annual Births493,585538,334557,657 Annual Deaths145,997153,302172,882 Total pop28,588,80030,530,62732,561,308

Summary statistics (2) Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Dependency ratio Median age Urban population20,125,20022,134,70424,420,981 Rural population8,463,6008,395,9228,140,327 Percent urban

Age structural changes – demographic dividend and aging

Population pyramid, 2010, 2040

Requirements for primary education – concentration in urban areas, replacement needed Students Teachers Schools Expenditure (RM billion) 20103,055,061254,5888, ,092,060257,6728, ,123,787260,3168, ,128,162260,6808, ,096,803258,0678, ,094,004257,8348, ,005,583273,2358,

Requirements for secondary education Students TeachersSchools Expenditure (RM billion) 20103,129,209240,7083, ,100,977240,3863, ,074,637240,2063, ,054,777240,5343, ,044,004241,5883, ,042,314243,3853, ,054,240254,5203,

Requirements for health sector DoctorsNurse Health centres/cl inicsHospitals Hospital beds Health exp (RM billion) ,97469,0557, , ,52070,3987, , ,59971,7907, , ,64173,1958, , ,71074,6248, , ,81576,0938, , ,75683,5589, ,

Requirements for economic sector Labour force (thousand) New jobs (thousand) GDP per capita (RM) , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,241

Discussion (1) Development planning is aimed at reducing regional disparity and improving the standard of living and making places more livable. Hence, there is a need to identify areas where population is growing rapidly, and also the population groups that are under-served. Population projections merely provide the number of “producers” and “consumers” of goods and services, we have to determine the standard to be achieved. E.g. to achieve a hospital bed population ratio of about 13.7 per 1000 population found in Japan and Korea, the number of hospital beds required in 2015 will be 7 to 8 times higher than that indicated above.

Discussion (2) More detailed projections at sub-national levels are needed – target population. Population in the different states and regions grew at different pace, resulting in population redistribution. Between 1980 and 2010, the average annual rate of population growth ranges from 0.9 per cent in Perak to 4.3 per cent annum in Selangor and 3.9 percent in Sabah. In 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. urban population grew at 6.2 percent, 4.8 percent and 3.4 per cent respectively, in contrast to zero growth in the 1980s and depopulation of 0.24 percent and 0.8 percent per annum in the rural areas. More attention needs to be given to urban planning

Discussion (3) Implications of rapid urban growth Inequality in accessibility to services Less developed states/areas fare worse than the more developed states/areas Need to reduce regional disparities in education, health, etc.

Discussion (4) Younger population stop growing Opportunities to improve the quality of human resources/capital- issues of eroding standard in education Addressing the social problems and meeting the needs of young people – education, employment, reproductive health etc.

Discussion (5) Population ageing -need to improve the social security schemes and promote active and productive ageing Increase in life expectancy must be accompanied by improvement in health expectancy. Non-communicable diseases associated with unhealthy life style are also poses abecoming a major health problem. Promoting healthy life style and healthy living must be accorded the highest priority, to ensure that the additional years of life are not spent in ill health, which s a burden to the health care system.

Conclusion Much more remains to be done to provide the necessary data to planners for them to allocate the required resources to meet the needs of the various segments and sub-groups of the population such as ethnic groups, occupational groups, people with disability, the indigenous, etc at the sub-national level. Population projections and estimating the needs for the various population groups entails the collection of the relevant data and indicators at these levels.