1. 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS

2. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate: 26.1 Death rate: 6.5 Total fertility rate: 3.2 child/woman Life expectancy: 67.1(M) 71.5(F) Marriage rate:7.7 per thousand Divorce rate:1.1 per thousand

3. 3 Egypt Demographic Indicators Labor force size: 20.6 million Unemployment rate:10.7% Pre- university students 15.3 million Primary stage: 49.6% Preparatory stage: 27.8% Secondary stage:22.6% University students 1.5 million Females :47.5%

4. 4 Population Policy Quantitative Objectives 2002-2017 IndicatorsTarget 200720122017 Crude Birth Rate ( ‰) 24.621.317.3 Crude Death Rate ( ‰) 5.75.4 Rate of Natural Increase (%)1.891.591.19 TFR2.922.512.1 CPR636773 Maternal Mortality Ratio per 100,000 birth 665140

5. 5 This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

6. 6 Existing population Projections This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

7. 7 I.Population and Labor Force in Egypt, Egypt 2020 Project II.The Policy Project, Egypt's Population Projections, 2000-2017 III.CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021 IV.CDC Egypt’s Population Projections, 1996-2021

8. 8 I. Egypt 2020 Egypt 2020 project conducted a study on population and labor force in Egypt, which started by population projections for each of the 6 regions separately: urban governorates, urban lower Egypt, rural lower Egypt, urban upper Egypt, rural upper Egypt, frontier governorates. 5 different political scenarios

9. 9 Main assumptions: Fertility: fertility level will decrease over time and the pace of change will differ across regions and by political scenarios. Mortality: Life expectancy will increase over time and the pace of change will differ by political scenarios. Internal migration: mobility between the 6 regions will differ by political scenarios in terms of direction and magnitude. International migration was not considered.

10. 10 FemaleMale 2020200020202000Region 72.868.870.866.8Urban 72.868.870.866.8 U lower 71.867.869.865.8 R lower 71.867.869.865.8 U upper 70.866.868.864.8 R upper 72.868.870.866.8frontier Expectation of life at birth

11. 11 TFR by regions TFR by regions HML 2020202020202000Region 2.312.101.922.68Urban 2.261.961.732.52 U lower 2.652.332.103.23 R lower 2.862.592.383.56 U upper 3.653.262.984.80 R upper 2.942.642.423.73frontier

12. 12 Projected population HMLYear 64.564.4364.372000 71.6571.3771.142005 79.3878.6778.092010 8785.7884.592015 94.1792.0690.22020

13. 13 II. The Policy Project The Policy project in Egypt conducted a study on “Egypt population projections 2000-2017” in 2002. 1996 Population census of Egypt was taken as a base year for the projection using Spectrum software package.

14. 14 Main assumptions: Mortality component: the model life table used is the UN General model. Migration component :the net migration is assumed to be negligible. Fertility: it was assumed that there would be three assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (2000-2017) as follow:

15. 15 Assumed TFR High assumption: TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) in 2017. Medium assumption: TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) in 2027. And the expected TFR for 2017 =2.5 Low assumption: TFR will remain constant at its level (3.5) in 2000 up to 2017

16. 16 Projected population HMLYear 67.167.0 2002 75.374.474.02007 84.781.980.72012 94.688.886.42017

17. 17 III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021 The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic conducted a project labeled “Impact of population increase on development in Egypt” which included population projections based on 1996 census.

18. 18 FEMALESMALESYEAR 6965.11996 71.567.12001 73.669.22006 75.570.92011 77.272.52016 78.773.92021 Expectation of life at birth

19. 19 Main assumptions: Fertility component: it was assumed that there would be two assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (1996- 2021) : High assumption: fertility would be constant along the period Low assumption: fertility would achieve 2.09 in 2021

20. 20 Main assumptions: Migration component was neglected.

21. 21 Projected population HMYear 58.7 1996 65.0652001 72.671.52006 81.178.22011 90.484.72016 100.290.82021

22. 22 Comparison between projected population from different studies

23. 23 Comparison between projected population different studies

24. 24