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UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and current status Parliament 27 th October 2011 Dr Guy Midgley Chief Director South African National Biodiversity Institute; IPCC co-ordinating lead author

Most observed warming since the mid-20th century is very likely the result (confidence >90%) of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations – warming is unequivocal IPCC (2007) Climate challenge

4 History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol Rio Earth Summit 1992 established a framework Convention to address climate change Context: a new awareness of global sustainability and socio-economic shifts and links Convention => high level statement of principle and approach, entered into force 1995 = COP1 Subsequent negotiated decisions (COPs and inter-sessionals) give substance to the Convention and bind countries to implement with Secretariat support Key principle “common but differentiated responsibilities”

Art 2 i: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate systemgreenhouse gasatmospheredangerous anthropogenic interference Art 2 ii: Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner Article 2 of the Convention (Objective)

6 History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol adopted 1997 – legally binding instrument, sets net emissions targets for “Annex 1” countries and elaborates “modalities” (5.2% below 1990 levels by end of 1 st commitment period) USA did not accede, (Australia followed) thus creating major imbalance in system, especially fairness and competitiveness issues in Annex 1. Delays in bringing Kyoto into effect, Russia’s signature in 2004 “activated” KP in 2004 First MOP in Montreal in 2005 – 1 st commitment period set for AWK-KP established to review Annex 1 targets

7 History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol COP13/MOP3 Bali Bali Action Plan – focuses on 4 building blocks – mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer Ad hoc Working Group on Long term Co- operative Action (AWG-LCA) established to give substance to the Bali Action Plan “Shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions” Two-year “Bali roadmap” setting up COP15 in Copenhagen for a major move forward Complex linkages between AWG-LCA and KP and delicate, complex “balance”

8 BALI TO COPENHAGEN (2007,8,9) 2009 – deadline re 2 nd commitment period; expectation to conclude negotiation on LCA Technical negotiations stall on political issues Japan, Russia, EU signal backtracking on Kyoto, some lack of transparency Proposals for new Convention architecture & new protocol Polarised politics, process stall progress on substance Copenhagen Accord – political agreement recording consensus of key groups apart from ALBA therefore only “noted” by COP Resolves key issue of “common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability” particularly around mitigation, review of global goal, deforestation Does not resolve global goal, level of ambition or Kyoto Protocol (implication for carbon “space”)

9 Sets up largest collective effort so far to reduce emissions, in a mutually accountable way, with national plans captured formally at international level under UNFCCC (Copenhagen Accord +) Comprehensive package framework to help developing nations deal on climate change: finance, technology, capacity-building support to meet urgent adaption needs, and to adopt sustainable paths to low emission economies resilient to adverse impacts of climate change (incl. Green Climate Fund) Schedule for nations to review the progress towards objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2°C Agreement to review whether the objective needs to be strengthened in future (1.5°C?), on the basis of the best scientific knowledge available CANCUN outcomes (2010) Current pledges projected outcome

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) CO 2 emissions (Pg CO 2 y - 1 ) Growth rate % per year Growth rate % per year Time (y) 2009 : Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3%

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