Famine Early Warning Systems Network July 2, 2015 Dakar, Senegal WEST AFRICA FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK July to September 2015

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK2 Presentation outline  FEWS NET’s analytical process and orientation to the region  Drivers of current regional food insecurity  Food security outcomes for July to September 2015

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK3 Key messages  Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity is likely in north-eastern Nigeria and amongst small populations in the Central African Republic and Mauritania. Humanitarian assistance is needed to avoid large consumption gaps.  Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity will be present in many other areas of West Africa.  Projected outcomes are partially dependent on the performance of the current rainy season and current rainfall models are showing mixed forecasts. If a poor rainy season were to occur, food security outcomes could worsen.

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 The scenario development approach STEP 1: Set scenario parameters STEP 2: Describe and classify current food security STEP 3: Develop key assumptions STEP 4: Describe impacts on HH income sources STEP 5: Describe impacts on HH food sources STEP 6: Develop response assumptions STEP 7: Describe and classify projected HH food security STEP 8: Describe and classify projected area food security STEP 9: Identify events which could change the scenario Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 PHASE 1 Minimal Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable coping strategies. PHASE 2 Stressed Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies. PHASE 3 Crisis Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food needs through unsustainable coping strategies. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED PHASE 4 Emergency Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps. PHASE 5 Famine Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident. ! Phase classification would likely be worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance. IPC 2.0 area phase classification

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 Seasonal calendar in the Sahel Source: FEWS NET Outlook period

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK8 Prices similar to or below the five-year average Source: FEWS NET May 2015 millet prices compared to the five-year average

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK9 Lingering economic impacts of Ebola Source: World Bank, IPA, Statistics Sierra Leone Employment rates in Sierra Leone LFS: July – August 2014; round 1: November 2014; round 2: January/February 2015; round 3: May 2015 Hours worked last week amongst those employed

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK10 Conflict continues in Nigeria and CAR Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK11 Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas Areas where June cumulative rainfall was less than 80% of normal Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK12 Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas Areas where the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK13 Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas Areas where the evaporative transpiration anomaly (Eta) is less than 90% of average difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK14 Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas Areas where all three measures were below normal Source: FEWS NET Ground reports indicate:  Significant delays (3-4 weeks) of agricultural activities in the Sudanian zone  Reduced seasonal agricultural work incomes for poor households

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK15 Other key drivers  Below-average availability of pasture in pockets across the northern Sahel  Localized areas of below-average household food stocks and livestock incomes due to poor 2014/15 rainfall  Average to above-average off- season cropping activities  Regular supply of imported rice and wheat from international markets  Avian influenza negatively impacting poultry farmers in Burkina Faso, Nigeria NDVI maximum anomaly, 2014 Source: USGS/FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK16 Food security outcomes, July to Sept 2015 Source: FEWS NET

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK17 Events that could change the Outlook  Late start to the rainy season across the northern Sahel  Below-average rainfall or poor temporal distribution of the rains  Atypically extensive damage from locusts or other pests  Drastic increase in new Ebola cases, or spread to neighboring countries  Significant increase in humanitarian assistance levels  Aggravation of current conflicts with an increase of displaced persons

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK18 For more information Laouali Ibrahim Regional Technical Manager, West Africa Abdou Karim Ouedraogo Food Security Analyst, CILSS/TAC, West Africa To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK19 Mixed seasonal forecasts for July to September Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation, Issued June 2015 Source: IRI Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued June 2015 Precipitation Standard Anomalies, Issued June 2015 Source: NOAA/CPC Source: ECMWF Probability of below-normal precipitation, Issued June 2015 Source: UK Met Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued May 26, 2015 Source: ACMAD