Five Questions About the 2008 Elections R. Michael Alvarez

2008 Was Historic First African-American president elected; have McCain won, would have had the first female VP. Lopsided Electoral College win ( currently, relative to 286 Bush/252 Kerry in 2004). Obama picks up critical wins in Southeast and West. Democratic gains in Congress: seats in House, 58-41* seats in the Senate.

And Change Swept The Nation New Mexico’s an interesting example: What you might call a Democratic blowout: Big win there by Obama Democrats take the state’s US House seats Win a Senate seat And make gains in the state legislature

The Excitement and Energy Was Palpable Strong pre-election trends in voter registration and early voting Strong voter participation When was the last time we saw so many presidential candidate signs in Pasadena? And the energy and excitement was apparent even for kids.

Sifting Through The Election Five Questions about the 2008 Election: 1.Why did Obama win? 2.Why did the election seem to go so smoothly? 3.What’s the next big election administration nightmare? 4.What’s the biggest question mark about the election? 5.What’s the most important outcome of the election for California?

Why Did Obama Win? The Fundamentals Heavily Favored ANY Democrat: One of the most unpopular incumbent presidents in recent memory An unpopular war in Iraq A crumbling economy And other issues like health care, energy.

Why Did Obama Win? The Financial Crisis: – Obama got lucky! – Despite the fundamentals, the election ran pretty much neck-in-neck through early September, when McCain and Obama were essentially tied in the polls – But the “September surprise” hit: the Fannie/Freddie bailout, Lehman goes bankrupt, AIG bailout … – And from that moment on Obama just widened his lead in the polls

The Data ge-mvo.php ge-mvo.php

Why Did Obama Win? The Demographics (from exits): – Race: Obama 95% of African-American vote (13%); 67% of Latino vote (9%). – Age: Obama 66% of the vote of year olds (18%); majorities of 33-44, (66%). – New voters: Obama 69% of new voters (11%).

Why did the election seem to go so smoothly? Dodged a bullet --- election wasn’t that close Strong early and absentee vote reduced demand on Election day Progress is being made: better administration, efforts to educate voters, voter protection campaigns

What are the next big election administration nightmares? Early and absentee voting: administering three election processes. Many places at an important decision point. Pollworkers: if we continue to vote on election day, where will the necessary army of pollworkers come from? Voter registration systems: what will the statewide data systems be used for? Data merging and mining; purging and cleaning.

What’s the biggest question mark about the election? The passage of Proposition 8 (currently at 52.2% %). Most expensive ballot measure this year ($74 million spent). Exit polls: 37% of Yes voters in CA voted for Obama. Passes in LA County (50.3% Yes); LA County votes 61% for Obama, nearly 54% of voters in LA County opposed Prop 4 (parental notification). Clearly cross-pressured voters; who were they and why did they vote to pass Proposition 8?

What’s the most important outcome of the election for California? Drum roll please … It looks as if Proposition 11 (redistricting) will pass (50.8% to 49.2%). California voters have rejected redistricting reform five times since Will create a 14-member citizen commission (5 D, 5 R, and 4 I) to draw state legislative and BOE districts.

Prop 11’s passage could: Lead to radically redrawn state legislative districts after the 2010 census, generating more competitive elections. Lead to other attempts at political reform: – Open primaries (top-two) – Initiative reform (legislative review) – Relaxing term limits – Budget reform (stronger spending limits, eliminate 2/3 vote for budget passage)