1. Setting the Stage

2. Office Hours When – Today- 11-2 – Friday 10-12 – Monday 10-2 Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

4. THE ELECTIONS OF 2010

5. Change Randy Marsh on – Change Change – Change Change

6. The Obama Dichotomy President Obama had a first term record of achievement not seen since LBJ. Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

7. Health Care Reform Policy Success – The largest accomplishment of the administration Policy Problems – Spent Political Capital – Delayed Implementation

8. The Stimulus Package Success – Potentially Staved off a second depression Problems – High Price Tag – Did not meet expectations

9. Prediction vs Reality

10. War on Terror Successes in Iraq Problems in Afghanistan – More U.S. deaths in two years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration Support Remains Divided

11. Financial Reform Bill Success – The most sweeping bank reform since the Great Depression Problems – Critics on the Left say it didn’t Go Far Enough – Economy had not rebounded

12. President Obama’s Policy Disconnect Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way Many Voters viewed these major policies as half- empty, not half-full

13. 2010 What comes around, goes around?

14. The Election of2008 A continuation of 2006 21 House Seats 8 Senate Seats The Beginning of a realignment?

15. Homeostasis Government tends to disappoint We move back to correct parties that go too far

16. Factors in the Midterm Negative Voting The Current Political Climate Party Balancing

17. Angry Voters

18. Exposure in 2010 A Result of Coattails More Likely to appear in the House How Much

19. The First Sign of Republican Gains Scott Brown Wins in MA 3 Special Elections go for the GOP

20. By Election Day 101 Competitive Seats Unemployment is 9.8%

21. Party Objectives GOP- Take Back the House and Senate Democrats- keep at least 1 branch

22. For A Republican Takeover In the Senate 10 Seats needed in the Senate 9 gives you a 50-50 tie and a job for Joe Biden In the House 39 Seats needed for control The average gain is 22

23. A Historical Perspective

24. Issues and 2010

25. Factor 1: Who isn’t there No BushNo Obama

26. The Most Important Issue of 2008 Obama misread the 2008 electorate The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

27. The Issues of 2010

28. The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

29. THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

30. A Referendum on the Economy

31. Unemployment

32. Who is to Blame?

33. DEBT AND STIMULUS

34. The National Debt on Election Day 2008

35. The National Debt on 11/2/2010

36. Budget Deficits and Record Spending 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

37. Voters wanted deficit reduction

38. The Stimulus Package produced mixed electoral results

39. THE HEALTH CARE LAW

40. Opinion Remains Divided

41. A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA The Man and His Policies

42. President Obama’s Popularity

43. On Election Day: A Referendum

44. On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

45. THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

46. The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization Very Motivated

47. The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

48. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

49. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

50. THE HOUSE ELECTIONS

51. Historical Context The Republicans Have their best midterm election in 72 Years The Largest shift in ½ a century Dem losses were 3x the average

52. The Results GOP Gets – 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) – 30 of 42 Tossups – 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

53. The Tide Lifted all Boats First Tier Challengers won Second and Third Tier as Well

54. Tea Party Candidates in the House Again A Mixed Bag – 84 Losers – 46 Winners

55. The GOP came back to some Regions Gained seats in all regions Best GOP Gains in the South and Midwest The Democrats did best in the west

56. Which Democrats Lost? The Class of 2008 The Class of 2006 The Wave Receded

57. A Bad Year for Incumbents and Blue Dogs Worst Year for Incumbents in 3 Decades The Blue Dogs are cut in half.

58. THE SENATE

59. The Senate of 2008 Started With 58 Got Up to 60 Went Down To 59

60. What Was at Stake Republicans Needed 10 37 Seats up for Grabs Not Much help from the 2004 wave

61. The Results No Decapitation of Reid No Biden Seat The Democrats Hold

62. Tea Party Candidates in the Senate A Mixed Bag Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI Losers-, DE, CO, NV

63. STRUCTURE, TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP Why the GOP Won

64. Structural Factors Timing Availability

65. Turnout Very Similar to 2006 A Smaller Electorate than 2008

66. Low Motivation from The Left Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue Card Check Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Public Option A Larger Stimulus Bill Immigration Reform Bringing the Troops Home

67. Who Voted GOP was more energized More conservative Older Whiter

68. Race and Age

69. Gender and Region

70. Partisanship and Ideology

71. The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years