APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015
ResultsToolsOverviewImpacts 2
OVERVIEW 3
4 15 NEW MODELS 375 Residential Non-Residential Multi-Sector
APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes
45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW ( ) 6
IMPACTS 7
2008 External Power Supplies Commercial Unit Heaters 2009 Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2010 Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Package AC and HP including Single Package Vertical Units Dehumidifiers Incandescent Reflector Lamps General Service Fluorescent Lamps Kitchen Ranges & Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines General Service Incandescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration Equipment WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?
Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Water Heaters Small Electric Motors 2016 Electric Motors Distribution Transformers External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens 2017 Walk-in Coolers & Freezers Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures 2018 Ice Makers 2013 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 2014 Refrigerators & Freezers Room AC 2019 Furnace Fans
STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT 10 DOE Standards Emerging Tech Support Market “Pull” and Demand Creation
DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 11 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up
INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 12 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up
PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS 13 $1,600 $800
STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS 14 Wattage Range
STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline Standard-size vented clothes dryers 3% Current Standards 32% Maximum feasible efficiency 15
TOOLS 16
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized TemplatesFamiliarity 17
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized ModelsCohesion 18
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES GuidesUsability 19
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 20 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 21 Annual kWh Per Unit Model Pre-Case Shipment UEC Model Post-Case Shipment UEC
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 22 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings
FLOW 23 STOCK
24 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2006INSTALLED STOCK IN 2007INSTALLED STOCK IN 2008INSTALLED STOCK IN 2009INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010
STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW 25 Shipments Stock Lifetime Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space
Shipments Incremental Savings SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 26 Change in Unit Energy Consumption
27 Weighted Average UECs Usage Statistics Efficiency Distributions Product Class Distributions
ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER 29
NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32
RESULTS 33
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 34 End UseResidentialNon-Residential Analysis CycleRound 1Round 2Round 1Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Heat Pumps Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters 8% 5% 28% 54% 2015
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Electric Furnace Fans Refrigerators Water Heaters 12% 5% 14% 24% 45% 2020
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters Electric Furnace Fans 5% 13% 18% 51% 2034
85% Distribution Transformers 0% 2% 6% 7% Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Electric Motors Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Commercial Washer 2015
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Ref. Equipments Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 5% 2% 15% 20% 58% 2020
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Washer Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 1% 3% 20% 75% 2034
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers 35% 65% 2015
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 36% 48% 16% 2020
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 17% 31% 52% 2034
CONTACT Carrie Cobb Ben Barrington Angie Lee