Scenario Planning: the PolyU Library experience February 2009 Steve O’Connor University Librarian

Scenario Planning: “Information is the currency of democracy” Thomas Jefferson February 2009 Creating the Future

Our Goal in life

“I am enough of an artist to draw freely on my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world” Albert Einstein

Future Thinking What it is not …Strategic planning …Only thinking about what to do tomorrow How not to change … Cling to present views of ‘our’ world …Not being able to conceive of other ways of doing … Wait for others outside our environment to tell us what to do; to reduce budget ; to force change of direction; to become less relevant

“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that matter” Lawrence Wilkinson

Tunnel Vision Light at the end of the tunnel Vision gets narrower Open it up ? Think ‘outside the box’ There are no sacred cows ! Change is the only constant in our lives!

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The Future is not linear….

Observations PolyU was trying to create three futures from which to choose Engaged in input from all library staff, UG and PG students, Expert Teachers, and Expert Researchers PolyU created the Preferred Library Scenario through a Workshop which a wide range of the PolyU community The PLS was then the target for our Strategic Planning

PolyU Library has sought to create its own future rather than accepting the future created for it.

Normal Life Cycle 一般的生命周期

Life Cycle with Spikes 跳跃的生命周期

Life Cycle with Long Tail 长尾巴的生命周期

Growth of Digital… 增长的数字化 资源 What is YOUR prediction for –Web? % –Digital? % –Print? % Think about it !!

Observations It is critical to use all sources of information to predict your own library future What will be the mix of budget, materials, print/digital, local/remote users, and so on All of this markets a Library which is seen as Forward Looking and Thoughtful !!

Strategic Thinking Future Focus Strong Weak Strong Mindless Action Futures Trap Paradigm challenging strategies Within paradigm strategies

Independent libraries

Networked libraries

Observations Our staff all need to be involved as each has much to contribute Our management behaviours in a collaborative world need to be quite different to those we have displayed in a traditionally hierarchical organisation We need to avoid ‘One Speak’ if we to be genuinely innovative and responsive

What will the future labels be for users and libraries?

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