2. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 1 Future of Repositories Workshop Kuopio 2 Steve O’Connor CEO CAVAL Collaborative Solutions Melbourne, Australia

3. Scenario Planning Workshop CAVAL Collaborative Solutions 2 LAWS OF UNCERTAINTY Laws and rules regulate behaviour and therefore reduce uncertainty We can act therefore more confidently and surely Laws are very structured and codified Nothing is more certain!!

4. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 3 Future Thinking What it is not …Strategic planning …Incremental planning How not to change …Cling to present views of ‘our’ world …Not being able to conceive of other ways of performing

5. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 4

6. 5 The Future is… About sustainability About relevance About appropriateness About affordability About deliverability About minimising risk without being risk adverse

7. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 6 “There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that matter” Lawrence Wilkinson

8. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 7 Tunnel Vision Light at the end of the tunnel Vision gets narrower Open it up ? Think ‘outside the box’ “..to live is to change and to be perfect is to change often” Cardinal Newman There are no sacred cows !

9. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 8 Weekend scenario

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13. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 12 Growth of Digital…..

14. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 13 Growth of Digital….

15. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 14 Growth of Digital….

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18. Some thoughts ? What is going to be the operating environment for Repositories in 3 years? What will the user see? What are the implications for Repositories?

19. Published Output Held

20. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 19 Why… Future of our Libraries Enormous growth and use (value?) of consortia Pressure on libraries to achieve unit economies Political impacts to deliver Libraries on different turfs, similar game !

21. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 20 Shift from Cooperation to Collaboration Strong inter-lending traditions ‘Big’ shared with ‘Smaller’ Random collecting achieved better coverage No reliance on central agency International possibilities More Futures than one !

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23. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 22 1. Professional Publishing and Information Universe (a) STM Legal & Tax Financial B2B Education Media/Marketing Other Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090 (a)Combined KAP/Springer entity. Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)

24. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 23

25. Shared profiling 1

26. Shared profiling 2

27. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 26 VDX

28. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 27 Infrastructure Relationships - Levels of Interoperability to Information Access

29. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 28 Overlapping Consortia Regional State Local

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32. E X E R C I S E

33. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 32 Emerging Trends in the Broader Environment

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35. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 34 Service Cycle Model

36. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 35 Factors

37. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 36 Factors with guides

38. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 37 Factors

39. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 38 Matrix

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44. Brief Scenario Construction

45. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 44 INSERT BINOCULARS

46. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 45 Aims of process By involving you and your staffs By offering not one future but a number By empowering you and your colleagues as Users TO PRODUCE A NEW ‘IFLA REPOSITORY’ FUTURE … THREE YEARS HENCE

47. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 46 YOUR INPUT What information service do you want to be provided three years hence ? What do you want as a User for your Repository’s resources and services?

48. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 47 No answers, only possibilities Three Scenarios from each Group Creative Name for each Scenario  for eg. ‘From Here to Eternity’ One sentence description of each Scenario Point characteristics for each Scenario  inc. community to serve, focus of delivery Have fun!

49. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 48 URL Digital Delivery 24/7 directly to end-user Information for free (supported or minimal charges) Performance and retention public agreements Strong local support of regional repositories in close partnerships Repositories focusing on existing strengths with multilingual approaches Virtual Union catalogue linking repository catalogues Develop local support to bridge into URL International focal points

50. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 49 How to bring scenarios into existence What would have to take place ? What kind of influence and attitude change would have to occur ? What kind of service would exist in 3 years time? Time to do your strategic planning…….

51. Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004 50 What have we learnt ? The Future isn’t what it used to be The Future can be what you want it to be Techniques for developing Scenarios –Small ( within one of your repositories) –Large ( Global Generic level)

52. What will the future labels be for assessment and publishing?

53. My only parting words !!!