Population ♥ Introduction to Population Analysis ♥ Population Dynamics ♥ Scenario Analysis ♥ Quiz Questions

♥ This chapter deals with population which is one of the core dynamics within the scenario analysis of the International Futures program ♥ Population is a key player in any model trying to create a reasonable prediction of the future with a given date set of indicators and parameters ♥ One the next slides you will see two graphical representations of the worlds population growth for the next fifty years. Notice that in the year 2050 the high and low forecast vary by approximately 2 billon people. This can be caused by many contribution factors that you must consider in the input stage of your scenario.

♥ The difference shown in the high and low predictions can be influenced by the following factors and many more ♥ Contraceptive use and promotion of family planning programs ♥ Improving the status of women ♥ Over all increase in the wealth of the population, As shown on the next slide this can have a great impact on population ♥ Controlling the rate of infections and general heath of the population ♥ Size of a population might seem important, however there are other factors such as the percent of the population that can be considered as “Dependent Population” i.e. those individuals under 15 and over 65. That also play a large role in future predictions

Population Dynamics ♥ There are many types of population analysis ♥ The simplest are pure extrapolations of of current growth patterns ♥ high/low extrapolation will give you a general idea of the future size of a population. Growth rate changes dramatically from year to year and therefore could significantly change a predicted out come ♥ One of the major tools available to you in IF to manipulate growth rate is - Cohort-component analysis This will allow to combine age-sex, fertility, and mortality distributions to get a more realistic picture of a possible future population

Population Dynamics (cont) ♥ TFR Total Fertility Rate. Is a measure of all the births a woman can have over a life time. ♥ This indicator varies greatly over time from many reasons related to other aspects of a country. ♥ Some of the influencing factors are: - Income per- capita - Cost Vs Return on the value of having children - nutrition and general heath of a population - family planning programs - Percent of women mobilized in the work force

Scenario Analysis ♥ This will allow you to select a set of indicators upon which you wish to focus ♥ Multipliers allow you to effectively increase or decrease variables that are otherwise calculated automatically ♥ You should have in mind a basis or rational for changes that you make in multipliers or other parameters ♥ This will be a process of trial and error

Draw your Own Conclusions 1.A booming economy will ______ the fertility rate of a country. a. increase b. decrease c. All of the aboved. none of the above 2.A highly educated female population will ______ the fertility rate of a country. a. increase b. decrease c. All of the aboved. none of the above 3.T F Sheer size of a population is the only factor that influences productivity. 4.T F The growth rate of a population is an exponential constant. 5.T F A change in agricultural yield will have an effect on population 6.T F International futures can predict the future

Draw your Own Conclusions 7.T F A government could use a population analysis to test the effectiveness of implementing a family planning program 8.The IF program uses parameters and ____ to manipulate its data a. multipliersb. dividers c. calculus d. indicators 9.T F Population has no influence on a counties power 10.Danno’s presentation was the ______. a. BESTb. BEST EVER c. Most informative thing I’ve ever listened to d. Greatest 10 min’s of my life