1. Volcanoes, Inequality and Population Pyramids A Study of Population Patterns in North Korea, South Korea and Montserrat EXEMPLAR CGW 4UI-01

2. North Korea The Developing World

3. 2000 Birth rates began to decline in the 1970s due largely to urbanization, lack of housing and the expectation that women would contribute equally to the labour force while still maintaining the household Government began to provide support to families with more children in an effort to boost population growth Lower birth rates (BR) during the Korean war years (1950-53) Population grows rapidly after the Korean war

4. 2025 Birth rates begin to stabilize due to the offsetting influences of government fertility campaigns and the lack of available jobs Higher proportion of females to males, either because of women’s higher life expectancy, wartime deaths or the government’s failure to include the military in population census Low BRs from the 1970s means fewer adults aged 35-49 Post-war increase in Birth rate results in more people aged 50-59

5. 2050 Birth rates begin to decline as the pressure to have many children decreases due to increasing life expectancy and decreasing infant mortality Post-war boom reaches age 80+, particularly evident for women, who have a higher life expectancy If current population trends continue, North Korea will experience declining BRs and an increase in the elderly population as seen in many developed nations

6. Analysis The adult population of North Korea diminished during the Korean War –The high proportion of women to men commonly found on the population pyramids can be attributed to higher life expectancies for women, wartime casualties or North Korea’s failure to include the military in its census After the war, birth rates increased in a form of ‘baby boom’ Birth rates began to decline for a number of reasons including increased urbanization, lack of housing and jobs and the changing role of women (expected to have jobs and take care of family) In the 1980s, the government felt threatened by South Korea’s growing population –Created a campaign promoting larger families and encouraging growth In the future birth rates are expected to stabilize and decline as the government campaign for population growth faces realities such as the lack of jobs and slow economic growth –Families feel they cannot have more children because they cannot provide for them

7. South Korea The Developed World

8. 2000 Low birth rate during the Korean war years (1950-53) Population explosion after the Korean war ended, dramatic increase in birth rates Begins to resemble typical first-world pyramid model Birth rates drop in response to both government and non- governmental population control programs Increase in commodities and improvement of infrastructure allow for increase in BR

9. 2025 South Korea has one of the lowest birth rates in the world – continues to decrease in response to population control programs Majority of the population is aging Fewer people in older generation due to war casualties

10. 2050 Birth rates continue to decline due to government campaigns and increasing affluence Large bulk of the population is close to or above 65 years of age, placing enormous stress on younger generations Further resembles age structure of other developed nations Longer life expectancy than 2000

11. Analysis After the establishment of the republic in 1948, population increased rapidly Population and birth rates declined during Korean war (1950-53) Growth exploded after South Korea won the war –People had better access to basic necessities such as clean water, education and health care Cultural preference for male children also sparked continued population growth In 1962, government instigated a nationwide family planning program in response to the negative effect of a rapidly increasing population on economic growth In recent years population growth has declined, mostly due to the success of official and unofficial population control measures –Agencies offered free birth control, family planning classes, subsidies to couples undergoing sterilization and public advertising campaigns “have a single child and raise it well” South Korea now faces serious labour shortages and will have difficulty in the future supporting aging population –Similar to many other first-world nations

12. Comparison: North Korea and South Korea North and South Korea share a war-torn past, but their demographics are very different In both countries, population exploded after the war largely due to increases in production and economic power back to pre-war levels –South Korea was backed by Western aid, North Korea by the Communist bloc In North Korea, government campaigns encouraged population growth in an effort to match the growth of South Korea In South Korea, government programs aimed to slow down rapid growth Although the countries differ economically and politically, population in each country is expected to decline –Birth rates in North Korea are still much higher than South Korea The issue of supporting an aging population is more of a crisis in South Korea South Korea is facing labour shortages while North Korea does not have enough jobs to support population –South Korea faces the social crisis of supporting an aging population with a declining work force

13. Montserrat Unique demographic patterns

14. 2000 “We survived!” mentality after 1996 eruption creates and explosion of births During the catastrophic volcanic eruption, children under 5, women and the elderly were most vulnerable and therefore experienced higher death rates during those years Many adults fled the country during the 1996 volcanic eruption, causing the population to drop

15. 2025 Birth rates stabilize and return to pre-eruption rates because lack of resources means large families are unsustainable Boom of 1996 continues to rise through pyramid The bulk of the population continues to get older Number of people in this age group (30-55) increases as refugees return to the island following the volcanic eruption

16. 2050 Birth rates continue to decline as there are fewer people of childbearing age and limited resources to support large families Original boom following 1996 eruption is quickly aging into dependency (over 65) Majority of the population is reaching old age “Echo” of post-eruption BR causes an increase in population aged 15-25

17. Conclusion There are a number of key factors that determine a country’s population patterns As demonstrated, war, government campaigns, distribution of resources and natural disasters can all significantly impact demographics In North Korea, war, government encouragement and a stagnant economy cause birth rates to fluctuate In South Korea, access to better social services and contraceptives allow for longer life expectancy and lower birth rates In Montserrat, a devastating natural disaster caused unnaturally high birth birth rates for several years which declined rapidly to pre-disaster levels