How People Voted The Election of 2008
Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time. Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.
SES AND GROUP FACTORS A Long Term Factor
Group Voting What makes a group important? The Democrats think more in group terms
Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008 African Americans Latinos Young Voters Highly educated voters
RACE AND ETHNICITY
African American vote in 2008 Compared to 2004 – Higher Turnout – More Democratic Why African Americans Were Important
Hispanic Voters The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity Increasingly Democratic since 2000 Key in CO, FL, NM
Race and Vote in 2008
AGE A Long Term Factor
Young Voters in For Obama Why What about other Age Groups
Age and Vote 2008
EDUCATION SES Long Term Factor
Education in 2008 A curvilinear relationship Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum
Education and Vote
RELIGION
Identification vs. Behavior Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice Religious activity is a much better predictor
Church Attendance and Vote
Who you are Jewish voters Catholics
Vote By Religion- 2008
GENDER
Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?
Gender in 2008
Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic
Marital Status
Decline of Security Moms
PARTISANSHIP Still the biggest factor in vote choice
Party Identification A perpetual screen More important in recent years Still the Best Predictor
There are more Democrats in 2008 The Long primary Generational/ Regional Replacement Mobilizing African American Voters
2008 Vote by Party ID
What about Independents Pure Independents vs. Leaners Independents go for Obama
Timing of the vote
Short Term Factors Issues, Candidates & Image
Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues
ISSUES Short Term Factor 1
Most Important Issues
ECONOMIC ISSUES The Big One
The Economy The events of 9/14
Economics
The War in Iraq No longer the salient Issue of the election Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds Obama could claim opposition from day 1
Iraq
Health Care Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)
Energy Policy One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin Never panned out as an issue Cheap oil throughout the fall
Drilling
Terrorism
Immigration No One cared Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue
CANDIDATE EVALUATIONS Short Term Factor
Hope and Change A message that worked It meant everything and nothing at the same time
Hope as a message
Change
McCain- Old and Out of Touch
PARTY IMAGE
The Republican Brand
The Third Term
Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular
McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush