1. POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith
Rational Voting
POLS 4349
Dr. Brian William Smith

2. Office Hours When Doyle 226B Today- no office hours Wed 10-2
And by appointment
Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes I
Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Readings
Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)

5. The rational voter model
Should We Vote?
The rational voter model

6. Rational Choice Theory of Voting
When Should We Vote?
Who should We Vote For?

7. The Rational Voting Calculus
C= Cost of participation
B= Benefit of voting
P= Probability that your vote matters
D= The civic duty term
C> PB +D We Stay At Home
C< PB +D We Vote

8. Benefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty
BP +D

9. Benefits From Voting (B Term)
Direct benefits
Policy Benefits
Desire to see one side win

10. Civic Duty (D Term) Democracy is the reward for voting
If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote
It can be a long term investment

11. The Rational Voting Calculus
C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

12. Still the biggest factor in vote choice
Partisanship
Still the biggest factor in vote choice

13. The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model
This
Not-This

14. The Michigan Model The Funnel of Causality
The events leading up to vote day
Socialization and temporal forces
Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

15. Party Identification The same as Partisanship
The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

16. What is Party Identification
The Concept of party identification
When do we get it

17. The Development of Party ID
How We Use it
How it evolves throughout our lives
The importance of strong partisans

18. Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

20. Party Identification

21. Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote
The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines
What might cause deviations?

22. Democratic Normal Vote

23. Republican Normal Vote

24. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008
Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain
There are more Democrats in the electorate
Obama wins

25. 2008 Vote by Party ID

26. Turnout and party Id
The 2010 Election

27. Turnout in 2010 Very Similar to 2006 A Smaller Electorate than 2008
42% overall

28. Midyear Tends to be boring

29. Low Motivation from The Left
Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory
Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

30. Who Voted?
GOP was more energized
More conservative
Older
Whiter

31. Party ID Rules the Day

32. Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels

33. The Big Question for 2012 was which electorate would we get: 2008 or 2010?

34. What about independents
Those Wacky Fellows
What about independents

35. Two Perceptions of Independents
Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party
Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.

36. Independents Matter

37. Why they Matter 1/3 of the electorate Necessary to get their support
Often Break for the Wining Candidate
2004 vs. 2008

38. The Independent Leaner
Claim to be independent
Actually lean to one of the parties
Have the same behavior as partisans

39. The Pure Independent
The growth in Independents is not from this group.
Only 7-8% of the population
Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.

40. Very Few Have No Preference