1. Still the biggest factor in vote choice
Partisanship
Still the biggest factor in vote choice

2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives
Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

3. The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model
This
Not-This

4. The Michigan Model The Funnel of Causality
The events leading up to vote day
Socialization and temporal forces
Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

5. Party Identification The same as Partisanship
The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

6. What is Party Identification
The Concept of party identification
When do we get it

7. The Development of Party ID
How We Use it
How it evolves throughout our lives
The importance of strong partisans

8. Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

9. Determining Party ID We Ask People
Are you a R or D or Something Else
If you are an R or D or you strong or weak
If you are an Independent do you lean R or D.

11. Party Identification

12. Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote
The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines
What might cause deviations?

13. Democratic Normal Vote

14. Republican Normal Vote

15. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008
Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain
There are more Democrats in the electorate
Obama wins

16. 2008 Vote by Party ID

17. Change in party identification

18. Change in Partisanship
Many things will cause deviations in our partisanship
Major Changes are called Realignments

19. Why Partisanship Changes
Generational Replacement
Period effects
Life Cycle Events

20. How We Change We go from an old party to independent to a new party
We become more independent
Often We just become more partisan

21. What about independents
Those Wacky Fellows
What about independents

22. Two Perceptions of Independents
Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party
Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.

23. Independents Matter

24. Why they Matter 1/3 of the electorate Necessary to get their support
Often Break for the Wining Candidate
2004 vs. 2008

25. The Independent Leaner
Claim to be independent
Actually lean to one of the parties
Have the same behavior as partisans

26. The Pure Independent
The growth in Independents is not from this group.
Only 7-8% of the population
Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.

27. Very Few Have No Preference