Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends January 22nd, 2010 Springfield, Missouri Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri

Overview of Session A few words about OSEDA Missouri Demographic Trends The 2010 Census –The Decennial Census 2010 –The American Community Survey (ACS) Understanding Local Missouri Communities Using ACS Applications – emenu.htmlhttp://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofil emenu.html

DataData InformationInformation KnowledgeKnowledge WisdomWisdom “The construction of knowledge involves the orderly loss of information, not it’s mindless accumulation.” -- Kenneth Boulding OSEDA collaborates with partners in the analysis of social and economic data in ways that contribute to improvements in the well-being of people, enterprises and communities. OSEDA…

TRENDS… Total Population 2009 World: 6.8 Billion U.S.: 307 Million Mo.: 5,987,580

Change in Population By State 2000 – 2008 Change in Population By State 2000 – 2008 Total Population 2009 World: 6.8 Billion U.S.: 307 Million Mo.: 5,987,580 Missouri 381, % US 24,834, %

* * * * * * U.S. Increase 24.8 Million (8.8%) Six States account for 55%

Using the latest 2009 Population Estimates to make projections for Missouri retains the 9 th The December estimates show Arizona growing a little less rapidly… But, migration is being impacted by the recession, and “Complete Count” issues may make the difference.

The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

Population Estimates More Population Estimates via OSEDA at MCDC.missouri.edu Sub-County Estimates for 2008 just released….Columbia officially over 100,000. OSEDA County Profiles

Male Female Male Female Population Pyramids of Missouri Percent of Total Population TRENDS…

Quality of Life

2010 Census Mother of all address lists (enumeration) Only “Short Form” in 2010 (the count) Reapportionment and redistricting file by the end of Representation and Resource Allocation Issues: “Disproportionate Undercount” Hence: “Complete Count” Programs Instead of “Long Form” we have: – “The American Community Survey”

American Community Survey Nationwide, continuous annual survey collecting the information on the 2000 Census “long form” –Demographic, Economic, Social and Housing –From 1 in 6 households in 2000 to 1 in 8 now –Three Million households a year Most definitive source of such data (allocations) Involves Margins of Error --- ( +/- ) like polls. –OSEDA Web application uses bold font for low MOE… Three types of estimates each year based on size –1-Year -- 65,000 population or more (Available Now) –3-Year -- 20,000 population or more (Available Now) –5-year -- Less than 20,000 population (Coming fall 2010)

American Community Survey Resources: – – – Applications Reports/Applications Demographics Profiles Trends

Under 20K Period Estimates will be Available in the fall of 2010 Annual County Maps will then be possible from ACS Public Use Mirco Areas (PUMS)

Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends January 22nd, 2010 Springfield, Missouri Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri