The Mixed System: How did primaries change the presidential nomination process?

Announcements Tuesday, Sept. 20 –12:30-2pm –Panel Discussion on President Bush’s nomination of John Roberts to be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court –IPJ Peace and Justice Theatre

Important Dates (Reminder) September 21 (Next Wednesday!) –Choose topic for research paper –Submit chosen topic with a preliminary list of books/sources November 11 –Last day I will accept drafts November 18: Paper Due Last days of class: Debates/Presentations

Research papers Choose an incident in which a president used a specific power. Research, using primary sources: –how the president justified his use of that power –how others in and out of government evaluated that justification –whether and how other actors attempted to restrain him. Based on that research, make your own argument: – whether and on what basis the president’s use of the power was justified; – whether appropriate steps were taken to check his use of that power; – whether the act in question falls within your view of the scope of legitimate presidential authority.

Topics Detention of U.S. citizens as “enemy combatants” Executive privilege over meetings with aides Suspension of the writ of habeas corpus Roosevelt’s attempt to “pack the court” Internment of Japanese Americans during WWII Refusal to enforce the Supreme Court ruling A topic of your own choosing

An “A” Paper Makes a clear, original argument Answers all the questions in the assignment Uses several primary sources –Presidential speeches/memoirs –Memoirs of key presidential aides –The Congressional Record –Contemporary news accounts –Court cases Is submitted on time (you will be docked a full letter grade for every day the paper is late!)

Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates “King Caucus”: Convention System:

The Convention System National party nominating convention selects presidential candidate Strong parties Patronage High participation Parties try to control presidents

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service

Rise In Civil Service Employment

Number of civil servants under merit system,

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service Communications technology

Changes in technology Railroads (1850s +) Daily newspapers (1880s +) Radio and TV (1940s +)

Number of daily and weekly newspapers

Number of Households with radio and TV (in millions)

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service Communications technology Primary elections

Number of States Holding Primary Elections

First Three Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System:

Mixed System Real decision about nomination made at national convention Candidates can choose to run in primaries

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

Number of Convention Ballots to Select the Presidential Nominee

1952 Democratic Convention: Delegates pledged by primaries Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): delegates Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates Uncommitted: delegates Others: –Sen. Richard Russell (GA): delegates –Averell Harriman: delegates –Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates

Compare the three systems we have discussed so far. How do each serve as a resource or constraint for presidents? Which do you think is most democratic? Which has the best chance of producing good presidents?

1968 Democratic Convention

Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System: Primary System: 1972-???

Important changes to party rules as a result of McGovern-Fraser Commission Anti-discrimination provisions Explicit party rules and open party meetings Bans the UNIT RULE –Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashion Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders

Number of states holding primary elections

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

Some delegates still chosen by other means Caucus: –A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinions State convention: –Local party groups select delegates to state party convention. State convention delegates select delegates to national nominating convention.

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media –(And hence the importance of early primaries!)

Early primaries get more media coverage (1980) StatePrimary DateNumber of delegates Percentage of CBS’ coverage IowaJan % NHJan % TXMay 32322% CAJune 34746%

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census IowaNew Hampshire National average Population 2,929,324 (30 th ) 1,235,786 (41 st ) 281,421,906 % White 93.9%96%75.1% Median income $39,469$49,467$41,994 % Farm employmt 4.4%.9%1.9%

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Decreases importance of national party conventions

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders

Changes After 1968 McGovern-Fraser reforms FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections –All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year Bans large donations by individuals –Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate

Consequences of Party Reform & FECA Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems? Ideological primary voters? Candidates mobilize factions?

Hunt Commission, 1982 Superdelegates Frontloading

Date2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses1996 Jan wk2DC Jan wk3IA Jan wk4NHAK, HI Feb wk1AZ, DE, MO, SC, NMLA Feb wk2MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DCIA Feb wk3MI, IDNH Feb wk4DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

AP Delegate totals, March 17, 2004 (2,162 needed to win nomination) Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156KerryEdwardsDean Clark: 73Clark Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2SharptonKucinichLiebermanGephardt

The INVISIBLE PRIMARY: The race for money and endorsements in the year before the general election

Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System: Primary System: ? (Modified primary system? 1982-????)

2004 Democratic Nomination What happened to Howard Dean?

How does the current system compare to historical nominations systems we’ve considered? What is the relationship between a presidential candidate and his or her party today?

Where are we now? Invisible primary will start December ’06 Has it started already?

Possible contenders? John Edwards Howard Dean Hillary Clinton Rod Blagojevich Janet Napolitano Bill Richardson Tom Vilsack Evan Bayh Bill Frist Rudy Giuliani John McCain George Allen Mitt Romney Goerge Pataki Chuck Hagel

In small groups, discuss: 1.What types of candidates are advantaged by the current nomination system? Are they the “right” kind of candidates? 2.What are the chances that your candidate will win his or her party’s nomination? 3.If you were hired to advise this particular candidate how to get his or her party’s nomination, what would you tell him or her to do?