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Polling. Interpreting a poll Who conducted the poll? How was it conducted? When was it conducted? How many people were sampled? Is the margin of error.

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Presentation on theme: "Polling. Interpreting a poll Who conducted the poll? How was it conducted? When was it conducted? How many people were sampled? Is the margin of error."— Presentation transcript:

1 Polling

2 Interpreting a poll Who conducted the poll? How was it conducted? When was it conducted? How many people were sampled? Is the margin of error reported?

3 Different uses for election polls Benchmark polls Trial heat polls

4

5 "If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" Hillary Clinton40 John Edwards16 John Kerry15 Joe Biden7 Wesley Clark4 Evan Bayh3 Bill Richardson3 Mark Warner2 Tom Vilsack- Unsure10

6 "If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" Condoleezza Rice22 Rudy Giuliani22 John McCain22 Newt Gingrich5 Mitt Romney4 George Pataki2 Bill Frist2 George Allen2 Chuck Hagel1 Tom Tancredo1 Sam Brownback- Unsure17

7 Field Poll, April 1-6 2003, 695 registered California voters If the 2004 presidential election were being held now, who would you most likely support? Joe Lieberman 22% John Kerry 16% Richard Gephardt 12% Carol Moseley Braun 4% Al Sharpton 4% John Edwards 3% Bob Graham 2% Dennis Kucinich 1% Undecided 29%

8 Quinnipiac University poll, 449 Democratic New York voters, February 4-10, 2003 If Hillary Clinton did not seek the Democratic nomination in 2004, whom would you support: Lieberman: 27% Kerry: 17% Sharpton: 16% Gephardt: 12% Edwards: 19% Dean 4% Don’t know: 15%

9 Quinnipiac University poll, 449 Democratic New York voters, February 4-10, 2003 If Hillary Clinton sought the Democratic nomination in 2004, whom would you support: Clinton: 50% Lieberman: 15% Kerry: 9% Gephardt 5% Edwards: 5% Dean 3% Sharpton 3% Don’t know: 9%

10 Different uses for election polls Benchmark polls Trial heat polls Tracking polls Exit polls

11 Problems with polls Many polls, different results Who isn’t polled Question wording

12 Other poll-like resources Focus groups Push polls


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