2008 Election Prof. B. Jones

Outcome As of 1:19 PM, Nov. 5 (from CNN) Obama: 63,568,329 (349 ECV) McCain: 56,198,499 (162 ECV) –Missouri, North Carolina TCTC –Map from NYT

Presidential Race Vote Shares (from New York Times) –Nationally Obama: 52% McCain: 47% –Selected States (Obama): California: 61% Florida: 51% North Carolina: 50%* Ohio: 51% Georgia: 46% Wyoming: 33% Utah: 34% Arizona: 45%

House and Senate Senate: Dem—56, Rep—40 (+5 Dem) –4 States TCTC: Mn., Ak., Or., Ga. House: Dem—254, Rep—173 (+19 Dem) Implications? What is Lieberman’s future in the Senate? What is the Senate’s magic number? (And why?) Ted Stevens in Alaska?

California Obama: 61 percent McCain: 37 percent Selected Counties: Obama Vote –Yolo: 67% –Sacramento: 59% –Marin: 78% –San Mateo: 74% –San Francisco: 85% –Los Angeles: 69% –San Diego: 54% –San Bernardino: 50% –Solano: 64%

California Selected Counties: McCain Vote –Modoc: 68% –Lassen: 65% –Fresno: 49.2% –Orange: 51% –Del Norte: 52% –Madera: 56% –Mariposa: 55% –El Dorado: 54%

California Ballot Issues: 4 and 8 Prop 4: Parental Notification: 47.9% Yes –Yolo: 36% Yes Prop 8: Gay Marriage Ban: 52.4% Yes –Yolo: 41% Yes –San Francisco: 24% Yes –Sacramento: 54% Yes –Modoc: 74% Yes

Obama Counties and Prop 8 Counties Imperial: 57% Obama; 70% Yes –Persons of Hispanic Origin: 75.7 Percent Riverside: 50% Obama; 63% Yes –Persons of Hispanic Origin: 42.1 Percent San Bernadino: 52% Obama; 67% Yes –Persons of Hispanic Origin: 46 Percent Inference? –Hard to say until we know turnout. –But an interesting question wrt Latino turnout and Prop 8 Sacramento: 59% Obama; 54% Yes No “red counties” went “No” on Prop 8 Several “blue counties” went “Yes” on Prop 8

Presidential Election Of Historic Proportions Some Demographics and the Obama Vote (based on Exit Polls): –Men: (Obama first number) –Women: Race/Ethnicity –White: –Black: 95-4 –Hispanic: –Asian: 62-35

Presidential Election: Age Age (what are your predictions?) 18-29: 66% 30-44: 53% 45-59: 49% 60+: 46% Implications?

Presidential Election: Final Polls

Latinos and the 2008 Election Analysis just released today by Pew Let’s consider some statistics… Estimated Vote Share and Voting Behavior Data from Exit Polls As a proportion of the total electorate:

Monolithic Voting? Not quite…but in some states, clearly. Recall African-American vote break-down however. Some selected states: 2004 to 2008 differences

Arizona and California

Florida and New Mexico

Implications? Was there or now is there a Latino vote? Did Latinos effect the outcome? Going forward, any implications? Does Barack Obama “owe” the Latino community? Turning to the election more generally…

Post-Election Analysis Why did Obama win? How will he govern? –Democratic control is now solid. –But we do not have a cloture-proof Senate –Democrats will find it hard to hide! Implications of Campaign for Subsequent Governance?