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1 Electoral College Outcomes Recent patterns Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2 Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Electoral College Outcomes Recent patterns Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2 Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Electoral College Outcomes Recent patterns Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2 Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S. Constitution created the Electoral College. Each state receives as many electoral votes as it has senators and representatives. Therefore, each state, including the District of Columbia, will have at least three electors.

2 2 Recent patterns: Bush/Dukakis - 1988 Republicans win big EC: Bush 426 (79%), Dukakis 111 (21%) Votes: Bush – 48,886,097 (53.9%) Dukakis – 41,809,074 (46.1%) Total votes: 90,695,171 Reps=blue, Dems=Red

3 3 Democrats win big in 1996 EC: Clinton 379 (70%), Dole 159 (30%) Votes: Clinton - 47,402,357 (49%); Dole 39,198,755 (41%); Perot – 8,085,402 (8%) 92,686,514 total votes Recent patterns: Clinton/Dole - 1996

4 4 Recent patterns: Gore/Bush 2000 No one wins big EC: Bush 271 (50.4%), Gore 266 (49.6%) Vote: Bush – 50,456,002 (48.4% Gore – 50,999,897 (48.9%) Nader – 2,882,955 (2.8%) Total Votes: 104,338,854

5 5 2004 – General Pattern: of EC Votes: Rep (Red), Dem (Blue) and Toss-up (White) States

6 6 Distribution of Electoral College Votes – Current Distribution and Democratic “Sure” States (>5%) Current distributionCurrent distribution Changes since 2000 – Dem sure states lost 3 EC votes Total 183 but only 179 if Kerry loses Hawaii State EC Votes Change in # of Votes since 2000 Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Dem "Sure" states Dist. Col. 30-72.01178 New York 31-2-21.53957 Rhode Island 40-21.04154 Mass 120-20.53650 Maryland 100-14.04354 Connecticut 7-13.54252 Illinois 21-12.04254 Vermont 30-11.54053 New Jersey 150-11.54250 Delaware 30-10.03845 California 551-9.54249 Hawaii 40-8.54645 Maine 40-8.03950 Washington 110-5.54450 Dem "Sure" states => 183-3-15.93146

7 7 Changes since 2000: Dem leaning states lose 4 EC votes Total 65 Total blue sure and leaning 183+65=248 Minus (Hawaii): 244 (need 36 votes) Distribution of EC Votes: Democrat “Leaning” States (2.5-5%) State EC Votes Change since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+200 0)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Dem "Leaning" states (1.5- 5%) Penn21-2-3.54649 Oregon70-3.04450 Minnesota100-2.54649 Michigan17-2.54748 Wisconsin10-4.04452 Democratic leaning65-4-3.14249 Dem Sure+lean =>248

8 8 Distribution of EC Votes: Rep “Sure” States, 5%+ Changes since 2000 - Rep states gain 3 EC votes Total 217 State EC Votes Change in EC Votes since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+20 00) /2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Rep "Sure" States Arizona 1025.55045 Missouri 1106.05244 Arkansas 606.04943 Virginia 1315.05047 Tennessee 1106.55141 North Carolina 15111.05243 Mississippi 612.05142 Alabama 9016.55739 Georgia 15211.05242 Indiana 1117.55839 Kentucky 8016.55639 South Carolina 8017.05739 Louisiana 9017.05832 Kansas 6022.06037 Texas 34221.55937 South Dakota 3022.05533 Montana 3022.55736 North Dakota 3024.05535 Oklahoma 727.56128 Alaska 3029.05730 Nebraska 5029.56132 Idaho 4035.05930 Wyoming 3038.56529 Utah 5043.06924 Rep "Sure" States => 217322.66340

9 9 Changes since 2000: Rep leaning states gain 0 EC vote Total 5 Total Rep sure and leaning 217+5=222 Add Hawaii: 226 (need 44 votes) Distribution of EC Votes: Republican “Leaning” States State E C Votes Change in # Of Votes since 2000 Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000) /2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Rep "Leaning" States (1.5-5%) West Virginia 505.05147 Rep "Leaning" States =>) 505.05147

10 10 Changes since 2000: Toss-up states gain 2 EC votes Total 68 Distribution of EC Votes: “Toss-up” States (-2% to +2%) State EC Votes Change in # of Votes since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+ 2000)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Iowa704445 New Hampshire40-0.54648 Florida2720.54847 Nevada511.549 New Mexico501.54744 Ohio202.050 Toss up states =>6820.747.347.2

11 11 1 st Scenario Bush Wins “Big” Assumptions: Wins all Rep sure states = 217 Wins all Rep leaning and Hi=9 Wins all toss-up states =68 Wins Minn. and Michigan =27 Total Bush: 321

12 12 2 nd Scenario Bush Wins “Small” Assumptions: Wins all Rep states = 217 Wins Rep leaning =5 Wins all toss-up states=68 Total Bush: 276 Total Bush win range: 276-321

13 13 4 Scenarios Kerry Wins “Small” Assumptions: Wins all Dem sure states except Hi = 179 Wins all Dem leaning=65 Wins one large toss-up state = Florida=27 OR: wins Ohio (20) +Iowa (7) =27 Total Kerry: 271

14 14 4 th Scenario Kerry Wins “Big” Assumptions: Wins all Dem sure states including Hi = 183 Wins all Dem leaning states = 65 Wins all toss-up states =68 Total Kerry: 316 Total Kerry win range: 271-316

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