National work with the GAINS model: experiences from Sweden and other countries Работы в рамках модели GAINS на национальном уровне: опыт Швеции и других стран Stefan Åström, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd.

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Outline  A brief presentation of the GAINS model  Examples of research activities in national GAINS modelling groups: –Sweden –Netherlands –Ireland –Italy –Finland –Russia

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Radiative forcing: - direct  - via aerosols  - via OH  The GAINS model – framework source: IIASA GBG Protocol Revised GBG Protocol

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, The GAINS model - structure Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions Costs PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, national projections Simulation/ “Scenario analysis” mode source: IIASA EGTEI, interim reports EMEP model WHO, CCE, etc

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, The GAINS model – example results CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particulate matter [months] source: IIASA

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, The GAINS model – example results Amann, 2010

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, IIASA recognition from Atmosfera 2009 EECCA country data needs for further improvement  Macroeconomic projections  Projections of emission generating activities: –Energy –Transport –Agricultural projections (livestock numbers) –Activities of heavy industries –Growth of NMVOC generating sectors  Fuel quality, country-specific emission and cost factors  ‘Current legislation’ penetration of control technologies Also (if possible)  Potentials for switching to energy efficient and low CO2 technologies Cofala, 2009

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, IIASA conclusions from Atmosfera 2009  GAINS has been used in many policy-relevant studies at the CLRTAP and EU level  Depending on the purpose, different model features are applied  Preliminary databases and assessment available also for EECCA countries  Data and results can be viewed via the internet  Tutorial is available also in Russian  Important updates of database for EECCA countries needed  Can be done only in close collaboration national experts PLEASE HELP!!! Cofala, 2009

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, GAINS activities in national groups ~15 countries are now working actively with Integrated Assessment Models, out of which 6 with GAINS This presentation shows examples from 5 countries, but all 5 countries are working in several other research areas as well

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Sweden: Nordic low CO 2 emission scenarios in GAINS Emission reductions baseline vs low emission scenarios Country / emission FinlandNorwaySwedenDenmarkOther* Total Nordic Unit CO % Non-CO 2 GHG % SO % NOx % PM2, % *’Other’ emissions is applicable in the 'What-if' scenario. *Germany and Poland are in the emission calculations included in the group Other.

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Health improvements would occur far from the Nordic countries if Nordic countries were to export surplus electricity to Germany and Poland o life months loss - BSL life months loss – ’what-if’ Sweden: Nordic low CO 2 emission scenarios in GAINS

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, The Nordic net abatement costs following the low emission scenarios Incremental cost on top of the baseline scenarios CountryDenmarkFinlandNorwaySwedenTotal Domestic (-574)* (-1350)*million €/year PP and IND million €/year Transport million €/year Total costs on top of the national baselines million €/year Sweden: Nordic low CO 2 emission scenarios in GAINS Different climate strategies, lead to varying costs burdens for the Nordic countries

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Netherlands – GAINS NL Modelling framework to assess exceedances of NO2 and PM10 along city streets and motorways Aben, 2010

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Ireland – GAINS Ireland Presenting uncertainty in GAINS modelling King, 2010

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Italy – GAINS Italy Comparison GAINS – Inventory 2005 (preliminary results) Pignatelli, 2009

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Finland – FRES model Karvosenoja, 2010

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Finland – FRES model Karvosenoja, 2010

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Swedish / Russian co-operation Exploring transboundary impact of PM 2.5 emissions (as an addition to previous presentation)

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, What would have happened if Western Europe did not control PM 2.5 emissions?  If 29 European countries (not including Russia) would have a VERY low ambition level:  The European emissions of PM2.5 would be ~13500 kton of PM 2.5 in 2010  These higher emissions would cause a reduction in average life expectancy of 7.8 months per person in Russia (reduction in life expectancy due to ambient air concentration of PM2.5) (very low ambition level includes a use of cyclone emission removal technology in for 50 % of the fuel used in the Power plants, Industry and conversion sectors)

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, What if some countries were to use all technologies available to reduce primary PM 2.5 emissions from stationary sources?  Polish max PM2.5 reduction efforts in 2010: –European emissions would have been ~12500 kton PM 2.5 –reduced ave. life expectancy in Russia would be 7.7 months / person  Polish + Belarus max PM2.5 reduction in 2010: –European emissions would have been ~12250 kton PM 2.5 –reduced ave. life expectancy in Russia would be 7.5 months / person (Max PM reduction efforts include use of high efficiency deduster emission removal technology in 100 % of the fuel used in the Power plants, Industry and conversion sectors, as well as a 100 % use of most efficient technology in other sectors)

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, The current situation - emissions of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 )  In the National 2010 Baseline, the European (incl Russia) emissions of PM 2.5 is estimated to be ~3500 kton in 2010  These emissions cause a reduction in average life expectancy of 6.8 months per person in Russia, due to exposure to high background concentrations of PM 2.5 (reduction in life expectancy due to ambient air concentration of PM 2.5 )

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, And what if 29 countries would have used all technologies available to reduce primary PM 2.5 emissions from stationary sources?  Euro29 max PM reduction efforts in 2010: –European emissions would have been ~2900 kton PM 2.5 –reduced ave. life expectancy in Russia would be 6.7 months / person

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, And what if the European part of Russia also would have implemented all technologies?  Four scenarios for the European part of Russia in 2010: –100 % High efficiency deduster in power plants and industry –Europe emissions ~2850 kton PM 2.5, Russian loss in ave. life expectancy 6.5 months / person –Maximum efforts in households and waste management etc –Europe emissions ~2750 kton PM 2.5, Russian loss in ave. life expectancy 6.1 months / person –Maximum efforts in process industry –Europe emissions ~2570 kton PM 2.5, Russian loss in ave. life expectancy 5.5 months / person) –Cumulative effect of the above –Europe emissions ~2380 kton PM 2.5, Russian loss in ave. life expectancy 4.7 months / person)

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, And what if the European part of Russia also would have implemented all technologies?  PM 2.5 Emission reductions in European Russia will have an impact on the rest of Europe  The anticipated years of life lost in Europe outside Russia would be reduced by 10 million life years.

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Further information

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Conclusions  GAINS modelling helps the international work on reducing emissions of air pollutants  National modellers can also use the model for analysis  National developments of GAINS model work require resources and expertise  Development of Russian work with the GAINS model shold be encouraged. Both for domestic and international purposes

National work with the GAINS model Stefan Åström, Thank you More information: Access to the on-line model: Information about the Swedish/Russian co-operation project: (in russian)