1. The impacts of the UN/ECE protocols on PM emissions in Europe Preliminary results of a study conducted for the PMEG Meeting, Dessau, March 10, 2006 with funds provided by DEFRA, UK Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2. Questions How will PM emissions in Europe develop, given the obligations laid down in the UNECE Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols? What is the potential for further PM emission reductions through extensions of the existing protocols? –To additional countries? –By strengthening existing limit values? –To other sectors? Assessment for –EU15+Norway+Switzerland –EU10 –Non-EU countries in the EMEP region, incl. Turkey

3. Methodology Based on RAINS databases as reviewed for CAFE CAFE baseline scenario (PRIMES 2004 energy projection) Emission analysis for –2000 –Current legislation 2020 –With further measures (MTFR) 2020 PM10 and PM2.5 Distinguishing between emissions from sectors covered by the HM and Gothenburg Protocols and sectors not covered. Calculations for 200+ source categories, results presented by SNAP sector

4. Sectors covered by the UNECE Heavy Metals (*) and Gothenburg (**) Protocols Sector SNAP code Large combustion plants in industry and in the power sector (incl. municipal waste burning with heat recovery) (*) 1 Cast iron production (*) 3 Cement production (*) 3 Glass production (*) 3 Metal ores storage and handling, agglomeration and sintering (*) 3 Non-ferrous metals production (*) 3 Iron and steel production (*) 4 Mining of metal ores (*) 4 Road transport (**) 7 Non-road transport (**) 8

5. Sectors not covered by the UNECE Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols SectorSNAP Production of coal briquettes1 Combustion in residential/commercial sector2 Lime production3 Small combustion plants in industry3 Processes in oil refineries, coke ovens4 Production of aluminum, fertilizers, paper pulp4 Production of carbon black, fertilizers, glass fiber, gypsum, etc.4 Construction activities4 Material storage and handling other than metals4 Small industrial and business facilities4 Storage and handling of NPK fertilizers etc.4 Coal mining, storage and handling5 Flaring in oil and gas industry etc.9 Agriculture10

6. Two scenarios for 2020: Current legislation (CLE) case: –Existing national regulations –For EU countries: Current EU legislation (LCP Directive, Euro-standards) –Only if HM and Gothenburg Protocols ratified, mandatory obligations of these Protocols Further measures (MTFR) case: –Application of all other measures from the RAINS database –No premature scrapping –No structural changes, no non-technical measures

7. Further measures considered for the MTFR (Maximum technically feasible reductions) case SectorMeasure Large combustion plants High efficiency electrostatic precipitators and fabric filters Small combustion sources in industry Electrostatic precipitators, filters, good practices Combustion sources in residential/commercial sectorNew boiler types, filters, good practices Production processes - stack emissions Electrostatic precipitators, wet scrubbers, fabric filters Production processes - fugitive emissions Process hermetisation, filters, good practices Flaring in oil and gas industryGood practices Open burning of wasteBan Agricultural productionGood practices

8. Applicable legislation and Protocol ratifications (as of March 12, 2006) EUHMGOTEUHMGOTEUHMGOT Austria Latvia Belarus Belgium Lithuania Bosnia Cyprus Luxembourg Bulgaria Czech R. Malta Croatia Denmark Netherlands Norway Estonia Poland R. Moldova Finland Portugal Romania France Slovakia Russia Germany Slovenia Serbia-M. Greece Spain Switzerland Hungary Sweden FYR Maced. Ireland UK Turkey Italy Albania Ukraine

9. Results for PM2.5

10. PM2.5 emissions in the EU-17 (EU15+N+CH) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

11. PM2.5 emissions in the EU-10 (New EU MS) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

12. PM2.5 emissions in the Non-EU countries (incl. TK) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

13. Technical potentials for further PM2.5 reductions (on top of Current legislation in 2020), in kt

14. Technical potentials for further PM10 reductions (on top of Current legislation in 2020), in kt

15. Scope for further technical measures in 2020 [kt PM2.5]

16. Results for PM10

17. PM10 emissions in the EU-17 (EU15+N+CH) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

18. PM10 emissions in the EU-10 (New EU MS) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

19. PM10 emissions in the Non-EU countries (incl. TK) subject to current UNECE Protocols, in kt

20. Conclusions Tightening of existing limit values in HM+GOT Protocols would have relatively small effect on total PM emissions in 2020 (EU-27: 70 kt out of ~1000 kt PM2.5) Large reduction potential from enhanced Protocol ratifications, especially by non-EU countries (370 kt out of 1450 kt PM2.5) Further potential from sectors not covered in current Protocols: –EU-27: ~310 kt, non-EU: ~610 kt PM2.5 –~2/3 in from non-combustion sources –Are technical end-of-pipe measures the best option for these small sources? Similar conclusions hold for PM10 Reductions of primary PM emissions are not equivalent to changes in population exposure