1. Capacity building regarding data inventory and air pollution modelling with the EMEP and GAINS models - applied on Oblasts of the Russian Federation Presentation for the Nordic Council of Ministers, Climate and Air group Stefan Åström, IVL

2. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Disposition  Two parts, –One relates to GAINS model adjustments, –the other to Russian EMEP model exercises  Problem description  Current work  Other developments

3. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 The CLRTAP

4. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 GAINS - online Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions Costs PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, national projections Simulation/ “Scenario analysis” mode source: IIASA EGTEI, interim reports EMEP model WHO, CCE, etc

5. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no The Unified EMEP model o Eulerian chemical transport model o Horizontal grid: flexible wrt projection and resolution: o Global domain: 1º x 1º o Regional domain (Europe+N. Atlantic): 50x50 km 2 to 10x10 km 2 o Vertical grid: 20 layers (up to 100 hPa) o Meteorology: ECMWF-IFS (standard), HIRLAM, WRF o Chemistry: 70 species, about 140 reactions o Aerosols:SO 4, NO 3, NH 4, BC, OC, sea salt, dust, water fine and coarse (standard), four size bins (extended) o Use for policy applications: calculations of status and trends in long-range trans-boundary pollution under the UN ECE LRTAP Convention

6. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no The Unified EMEP model Horizontal resolution: 50 x 50 km 2 (25x25, 10x10 km 2 ) ) ‏ Vertical resolution: 20 layers ( up to 100 hPa) ‏ Off-line meteorology: 3-h HIRLAM (EC MWF) ‏ Calculation domains Black – “old” 50x50 km2 Red – extended 50x50 km2 25x25 km2 Blue – 10x10 km2

7. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Russia in the current GAINS Europe model Popov, 2002One emission dispersion region

8. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Russia in the current GAINS Russia model Popov, 2002

9. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 The world in the GAINS World model Cofala, 2011

10. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Russia in the GAINS World model Cofala, 2011

11. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Western Russia in the GAINS World model Cofala, 2011

12. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Progresses in EMEP modelling – emissions of pollutants in Russia Morozovia, 2011

13. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Emission dispersion calculations using the extended EMEP model grid Morozovia, 2011

14. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 The Russian regions of primary concern The GAINS SPET region St.Petersburg, Leningradskaya, Pskov, Novgorodskaya oblasts The GAINS Kola/Karelia region Murmansk, Karelia oblasts

15. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Emission dispersion without implementation of emission control Emission Emission dispersion if no emissions are controlled by technologies Morozovia, 2010

16. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 If GAINS model baseline measures were used 2005 Emission dispersion when baseline measures are applied Emission Morozovia, 2010

17. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 SOx deposition from Kola/Karelia, no emission control (mgS/m2) Morozovia, 2010

18. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 SOx deposition from Kola/Karelia, with IIASA baseline measures (mgS/m2) Morozovia, 2010

19. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 2008 region-to-region blame matrices for SOx deposition, tonne KARELENI MUR M VOL O ARK H KAL I EEPLDEFIBYKZSEUATR PSK O NOV G NO Rest part of EMEP KARE887016572711821184639176325925511400654361237260022943237314589 LENI5946269496632508314196191045053665318395220714872432911874 MUR M123720817375210148112369112737378919718923290774105777093 VOLO43386354269411038277062035381312563116876419864843312723496 ARKH240712433713242317137551495383273711947961694262564599653299934303 KALI81321444473623293253266823409162072620 EE992171685062382662222852737835545100149649354279434 PL12014925759865605211903321613733914691222941495559023411773637 DE1019714640378224718136105850194465772022550110123151119303 FI40021228500440510169729576204172510406103026112264722209662028631015 BY22126838114719519254119093203236599864971222681018949193733141 KZ43567710912310123161530060254371741511102429072642170 SE81339817762274901039237327572922615241554520260860268109365225 UA2482474962403131244633448234433883240296012224825517683408 156900 TR314556637914412243535412481356189872343876729228988 PSKO1483932141041163816941987380218150712061275018647413218113 NOVG2481001293346284266811338339210670160481995158104167158244 NO3311024635682443417724162696479151634727882272208545159 Morozovia, 2011

20. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Other developments  Reorganisations and restructuring  Rostekhnadzor - Federal service on ecological, technological and nuclear supervision, is now directly under the government. A reorganisation has followed  Change of capacity  Other changes

21. EMEP and GAINS model capacity building in Russia Stefan Åström, 110323 Thank you NMR!