Population and Global Resources
Outline ä The need for population projections ä Population Projection Methods ä Global Statistics – ä Population ä Energy ä Water ä The need for population projections ä Population Projection Methods ä Global Statistics – ä Population ä Energy ä Water
Population Projections ä Needed by engineers and planners for the design of facilities and infrastructure (roads, mass transit, water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, schools, hospitals...) ä Population projections rely on ä ________ population growth (trend line extrapolation) ä Models with various levels of sophistication based on estimates of fertility and mortality ä Needed by engineers and planners for the design of facilities and infrastructure (roads, mass transit, water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, schools, hospitals...) ä Population projections rely on ä ________ population growth (trend line extrapolation) ä Models with various levels of sophistication based on estimates of fertility and mortality Historic
Population Projection Methods constant rate of growth proportional to the population ä Arithmetic progression ä Constant slope (___________________) ä Least squares regression line ä Geometric progression ä The ratio between successive terms is constant ä Rate of growth is ________________________ at the beginning of each time period ä Arithmetic progression ä Constant slope (___________________) ä Least squares regression line ä Geometric progression ä The ratio between successive terms is constant ä Rate of growth is ________________________ at the beginning of each time period
Geometric Model Difference Equation WithN(0) = 10, r = 0.2 [1/t], t = 0.5 [t] N(1) = 12.1 N(2) = 14.6 N(10) = 67.3 Geometric progression Future population Present population Population growth
Geometric Model ä The results of the difference equation are a function of the _______used time population 10 tttt time step
Exponential growth model no resource limitations no competition among individuals ä Similar to geometric progression ä Specific rate of growth is constant (growth rate per individual is independent of the population density) ä Limit of the geometric growth model where the time interval goes to zero ä Under what conditions might this occur? ä Frequently observed with new populations ä ___________________________________ ä Similar to geometric progression ä Specific rate of growth is constant (growth rate per individual is independent of the population density) ä Limit of the geometric growth model where the time interval goes to zero ä Under what conditions might this occur? ä Frequently observed with new populations ä ___________________________________
Exponential Growth Model: Derivation Specific rate of growth is constant N=size of the population N 0 =initial size of the population t=time t 0 =initial time r=growth rate Normalized by the total amount Geometric Model t
growth rate Exponential Growth Model Equations Linearized form: the slope (m) will be the _______ _____.
Geometric/Exponential Model Comparison
Manhattan
Manhattan Population year population Brooklyn Bridge Brooklyn Bridge Completed: 1883 What resources limited the growth rate?
Component method fertility and mortality ä Divide base population into age, gender, economic, ethnic components ä Apply ___________________ rates to each component ä Assume trends for future immigration and emigration and apply fertility and mortality rates to these groups as well ä Divide base population into age, gender, economic, ethnic components ä Apply ___________________ rates to each component ä Assume trends for future immigration and emigration and apply fertility and mortality rates to these groups as well
Population Pyramids (by country) ä Application of component method to nations
Global Statistics ä Population growth ä Resource Utilization ä Energy ä Vehicles ä Water ä Population growth ä Resource Utilization ä Energy ä Vehicles ä Water
Urban Population Urban population is overtaking rural population Urban and Developed World footprints
The Footprint of the Developed World ä North America, Europe and parts of East Asia consume immense (unsustainable) quantities of energy and raw materials, and produce high volumes of wastes and polluting emissions… ä that cause environmental damage on a global scale (notably climate change) and widespread pollution and disruption of ecosystems, often in countries far removed from the site of consumption. ä Wealthy industrialized countries control pollution locally but the wider-scale impacts (apart from ozone depletion) have yet to be tackled effectively. ä North America, Europe and parts of East Asia consume immense (unsustainable) quantities of energy and raw materials, and produce high volumes of wastes and polluting emissions… ä that cause environmental damage on a global scale (notably climate change) and widespread pollution and disruption of ecosystems, often in countries far removed from the site of consumption. ä Wealthy industrialized countries control pollution locally but the wider-scale impacts (apart from ozone depletion) have yet to be tackled effectively.
Energy Consumption P"Peta" T"Tera" 10 9 G"Giga" 10 6 M"Mega" 10 3 k"kilo" P"Peta" T"Tera" 10 9 G"Giga" 10 6 M"Mega" 10 3 k"kilo" How much does a Gj of electricity cost? Energy conversions Energy conversions What are the energy costs per person?
Motor Vehicles ä Transport now accounts for ä _____ of world energy use ä _____ of the world's oil production ä motor vehicles account for nearly ___ % of all transport-related energy ä Transport is/causes ä a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions ä urban air pollution ä substantial land use ä habitat degradation and fragmentation ä Transport now accounts for ä _____ of world energy use ä _____ of the world's oil production ä motor vehicles account for nearly ___ % of all transport-related energy ä Transport is/causes ä a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions ä urban air pollution ä substantial land use ä habitat degradation and fragmentation 1/4 1/2 80
Freshwater ä The declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the coming century ä About 20 % of the world's population lacks access to safe drinking water and about 50 % lacks adequate sanitation ä Worldwide, polluted water is estimated to affect the health of about 1.2 billion people and to contribute to the death of about 15 million children under five every year (ICWE 1992). ä The declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the coming century ä About 20 % of the world's population lacks access to safe drinking water and about 50 % lacks adequate sanitation ä Worldwide, polluted water is estimated to affect the health of about 1.2 billion people and to contribute to the death of about 15 million children under five every year (ICWE 1992).
Measures of Poverty
Water Supply – Global Coverage in – 25% 26 – 50% 51 – 75% 76 – 90% 91 – 100% Missing data What do the countries with the poorest coverage share?
Water Supply Coverage for Developing Countries
Water Supply in the Largest Cities Mean percentage of population with each type of service What are the implications of being “unserved?”
Treated Urban Wastewater
Goals for Sustainable Development Related to Water ä Ensure the adequate supply and efficient use of water for agricultural, industrial, urban and rural development ä Ensure adequate access of the poor majority to clean water for domestic use and small scale agriculture ä Ensure adequate protection of watersheds, aquifers and freshwater ecosystems and resources ä Ensure the adequate supply and efficient use of water for agricultural, industrial, urban and rural development ä Ensure adequate access of the poor majority to clean water for domestic use and small scale agriculture ä Ensure adequate protection of watersheds, aquifers and freshwater ecosystems and resources economic social environmental
The Challenge ä All population growth is expected to occur in developing nations ä Rural population is expected to stabilize at around 3.2 billion (from 2.97 billion today) ä The growing population will settle in urban areas. ä The challenge is to provided the basic infrastructure required by nearly 2 billion new urban residents in the developing world by ä All population growth is expected to occur in developing nations ä Rural population is expected to stabilize at around 3.2 billion (from 2.97 billion today) ä The growing population will settle in urban areas. ä The challenge is to provided the basic infrastructure required by nearly 2 billion new urban residents in the developing world by 2025.
Summary ä Global Human Population ä Resource Utilization ä Unsustainable ä Wealthy industrialized countries cause environmental damage on a global scale ä Unjust ä Water ä Challenge of providing clean drinking water and treating wastewater as population grows, resources are stretched, and global climate changes ä Energy…Our information technology revolution will fail if it continues to run on coal and oil ä Global Human Population ä Resource Utilization ä Unsustainable ä Wealthy industrialized countries cause environmental damage on a global scale ä Unjust ä Water ä Challenge of providing clean drinking water and treating wastewater as population grows, resources are stretched, and global climate changes ä Energy…Our information technology revolution will fail if it continues to run on coal and oil
GEO-2000 regions
Energy Costs If all of our energy use was electricity our annual energy cost would be Electricity is the most expensive form of energy. We pay for our energy at many different places. Taxes, gasoline, firewood, anything we purchase!