1. Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’? Rania el Masri, Ph.D. Environment and Energy Policy Specialist Cairo, May 8, 2012 rania.elmasri@undp.org

2. State of our water commons 2

3. Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr) 3

4. Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr) 4

5. Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr) Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) Water Crisis level (< 500) Water scarcity level (< 1000) 5

6. Freshwater availability: 1955-2025 (m3/capita/yr) 6

7. Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025 7

8. Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 - 8

9. 9

10. Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010 10 Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining…

11. 11 Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025

12. population growth: 1950-2050 Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year)  GCC population: to double by 2040  Maghreb population: to double by 2060 12

13. State of our water commons  Decreasing supply  Aquifers and groundwater already heavily mined  Examples: Yemen, Saudi Arabia; lesser extent: Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon  Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita)  Population growth  Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social demands Plus Projected impacts of climate change  decreasing supply and increasing demand 13

14. Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050 Source: Milly et al., published in Nature. 14

15. State of our water commons: leakage 15

16. Water supply and uses 16 For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006)

17. Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011 17

18. Impacts of our water crisis 18

19. 19 Population without access to improved water sources (2010) Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010) Impact of water crisis: who gets water?

20. 20 Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?

21. (Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand  Direct impacts  … increased cost  … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization)  Indirect impacts  … increased poverty  … increased health risks  …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector  Decreased ecosystem health 21

22. Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable 22

23. HUMAN SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT State: water security crisis IMPACTS Human well-being: Economic, social goods & services RESPONSES Mitigation and adaptation PRESSURES DRIVERS Ecosystem services Farmer liveilhoods Population growth Increased consumption Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement Decreasing supply Decreasing quality 23

24. Current Responses  Desalination  GCC: more than 50% of domestic water use consumption comes from desalination  Energy usage: drinking oil?  Some reports indicate by 2050, GCC would spend 50% of their fuel on desalination  Negative Impact on marine life  Privatization  UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: Public-Private Partnership  Needs strong regulatory government to ensure that public will not suffer from increased cost and decreased quality  Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon: highest growth in bottled water consumption in the world)  Bottled water: polluting industry  Removes pressure on government to provide clean water to population  Reuse of drainage water  Practiced on a large scale in Egypt  Up to 10% of total water resources are from reused from agricultural drainage water  More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria 24

25. Additional necessary responses  Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning )  Develop a water commons  Participatory stewardship  Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ as was in Rio  Reduce vulnerabilities of poor  Charge higher volume users more per unit  Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package  Why do we assign water quality to a Health Ministry, drinking water to an urban utility, and irrigation to an Agricultural Ministry, and no one responsible for watershed health?  Develop sequential water use  Implement wise agricultural management (from halting the export of virtual water to comprehensive support for small-holder farmers)  Stop export of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice  Support farmers to have the financial means to implement water efficient irrigation  Ensure water as a human right and not a human need  And of course: work seriously to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions locally and internationally: make mitigating climate change a priority 25

26. HUMAN SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT State: water security crisis IMPACTS Human well-being: Economic, social goods & services RESPONSES Reduce consumption Reduce consumption Develop a water commons Develop a water commons Water as a human right Water as a human right PRESSURES DRIVERS Ecosystem services Farmer liveilhoods Population growth Increased consumption Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement Decreasing supply Decreasing quality 26

27. Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine 27

28. 28 Theft of Palestinian Water

29. For more information, please contact Rania el Masri at rania.elmasri@undp.org 29