Hubbert and the Oil Peak VT Law School Class 2 Gary Flomenhoft VTLAW-EcoEcon.

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Presentation transcript:

Hubbert and the Oil Peak VT Law School Class 2 Gary Flomenhoft VTLAW-EcoEcon

The “OIL PEAK”

Source: Smil (1991)

Composition of U.S. Energy Use wood animal feed coal oil gas electricity Percent of total energy use

Energy Rate of Return

Fuel Domesticated Animals Labor Work Done in the U.S. Economy,

The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) Iron in Middle East Stonehenge Built Parthenon completed Pyramids constructed Mayan culture Inquisition Black Death Magellan's Circumnavigation Steam Engine Trillion kwh per year

Hubbert Oil Cycle

US Oil Extraction

Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO) Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO) Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)

World Oil Extraction

Various National Patterns USA – E.g.. of a net consumer Venezuela – E.g. of a net producer High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

Various National Patterns Mexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future. U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

Forecasting Oil Production Source : US DOE (EIA), website. U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak Production = 2037

World Oil Extraction

World Oil Consumption

World Oil Flows

Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesJulian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6 th - 12 th 1999, pp Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilColin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp (Campbell and Laherrere) Two Views S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.

Real Price of Oil since 1869

Oil Reserve/Production ratio

Oil Reserves

“Proven” oil reserves

Natural Gas Reserves

Coal Reserves

Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax Credit

Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.” Thomas Gross, US DOE

China Energy use 1997

Source: EPA

Heinberg Chapter 1 How to gain an Energy Subsidy 1) Takeover 2) Tool Use 3) Specialization 4) Scope Enlargement 5) Drawdown

Takeover Biotic Potential / Competitive exclusion Use / divert: 40% Earth’s terrestrial NPP 25% Total NPP

Drawdown Deplete non-renewable stocks: Coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, minerals, etc. Dangers of Drawdown: Pollution Climate change Depletion

Complexity-diminishing returns

Complexity Increasing costs of: Maintaining organization and control Controlling conquered territory Taxation

American success Great natural resources Energy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuels Global trade

Other Extinct cultures Rapa Nui- (Easter Island) Mangaia Mangereva Pitcairn Henderson Exception: Tikopia