2. Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Feb. 20, 2008 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute Lecturer, Community and Intl. Development http://www.uvm.edu/giee

3. Fuel Domesticated Animals Labor Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970

4. 0 25 50 75 100 180018251850187519001925195019752000 Composition of U.S. Energy Use wood animal feed coal oil gas electricity Percent of total energy use

7. WORLD ENERGY 2004

8. Net Energy

9. Hubbert Oil Cycle Marion King (MK) Hubbert

10. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 0 -5 -4-3 -2 +1 +2+3 +4 +5 Iron in Middle East Stonehenge Built Parthenon completed Pyramids constructed Mayan culture Inquisition Black Death Magellan's Circumnavigation Steam Engine 100 200 300 Trillion kwh per year

11. US Oil Extraction

12. World Oil Extraction

13. Oil Reserves

14. US Oil Extraction

15. World Oil Extraction

17. Source: Boyle, et al, Oxford Press

18. Oil consumption by area

20. OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS ASPO Scenario

21. World Oil Extraction

22. World Oil Flows

24. Oil Producers: 98 countries www.lastoilshock.com

25. Oil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminally www.lastoilshock.com

26. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087 Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007

30. Business As Usual-EIA

32. 1960-1980 Predictions

33. 1975-1983 Predictions

34. Real Price of Oil 1869-2007

39. World Oil Extraction

40. Dumped Gas Hogs 1974 Lincoln~8mpg 1974 Corolla~30mpg

41. Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) ElectricarLectra 1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs “Better batteries 10 years away”

43. WORLD ENERGY

44. (61% FF=8.8%FF) 8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil Fuels

45. How VT Heats 86% Fossil Fuels

46. How People Move-USEIA

47. Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax Credit

48. Source: EPA

49. Policy Recommendations: Guidelines 1.Eliminate perverse incentives-make money! 2.Provide positive incentives-account for externalities. ie: putting a price on carbon- make money or revenue neutral. 3.Regulate (higher mpg) 3.Spend money The playing field is NOT level. Fossil Fuels have 100 years of subsidies,ignoring external costs, and a huge lobby in DC. Don’t expect the “free market” to take care of it.

50. WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active? WHAT DON’T WE HAVE? Oil-zero Coal-zero Nat Gas-not much (landfills) Why promote consumption of something we don’t have? * Conduct an audit of perverse incentives promoting FF use. Eliminate perverse incentives.

51. WHAT TO DO? DEALING WITH PEAK OIL IS GOOD FOR Climate Change Vermont Economy Should do it anyway

52. WHAT TO DO? Provide incentives Ex: Germany Policies, Market-based Instruments: 1.1999 Tax & Rebate on Fuel (tax cut): Diesel/gasoline $1.79-2.48/gallon Funds rebated to payroll taxes-89%, efficiency, and RE 2.2005 Cap/trade for CO2-powerplants and industrial heat 3.1991 Feed-in Tariffs: Wind=$.1149, PV=$.6385, hydro=$.1055, biogas=$.1551 No costs to government Results: PV Industry: 2715 MW installed, 52% of world total, 40,000 employed (US has 360 MW installed or 13% of Germany) Wind Industry: 22,247MW, 28% of world total, 82,000 employed (United States 16,818MW) Biomass sector 95,400 employed Total: 217,000 employees in RE ~107,000 FF & nuclear

53. WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active? WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH? Trees Farms Cows Land Wind Sun Big and Small Hydro Smart People Indigenous Energy Industry Entrepreneurs

54. WHAT TO DO? Electricity VT Yankee = 550MW CT River Dams-567MW. Dams = $160 Million/year revenue. Buy the dams. Use eminent domain if necessary Fast-track small hydro-up to 400MW Approve more wind farms More Wood chip plants Etc.

55. WHAT TO DO? Heat All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization District heating and co-generation Biodiesel heating fuel Wood and wood chip/pellet heating Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window insulation, Solar hot water Wood stoves High Performance Schools Energy Program Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuel

56. WHAT TO DO? Transportation Hybrids Plug-in hybrids Electric vehicles Alternative fuels, ethanol, methanol (flex-fuel), biodiesel Trains Public transit-Jitneys Bike/pedestrian paths Tax/rebate on fuels Cap/dividend on carbon-vehicles

57. WHAT TO DO? Agriculture Don’t turn food into fuel Biodiesel: waste oil, algae, non-food crops Methane digesters: “Cow-power”

58. Crisis or Opportunity We will shift from Fossil Fuels. Will we be Pro-active or reactive? It’s up to you.