1. Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 7 Global and US Fossil Fuel Resources: Oil and Natural Gas

2. Fossil Fuels Formed 50 million to 350 million years ago from plants and animals. Fuels Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Shale Oil Tar Sands

3. US Energy Consumption (QBtu) Petroleum 38 (39%) Natural Gas 23 (24%)

4. Oil and Natural Gas

5. Oil Hydrocarbon chains CH 2 -CH 2 - CH 2 ----- 2CH 2 + 3O 2  2CO 2 + 2H 2 O

6. Natural Gas Primarily Methane CH 4 CH 4 + 2O 2  2H 2 O + CO 2

7. Oil Crude oil is measured in barrels. A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products.

8. Oil Refinery After crude oil is removed from the ground, it is sent to a refinery The crude oil is separated into useable petroleum products.

9. Oil Refinery A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products. One barrel of crude oil, when refined, produces 20 gallons of finished motor gasoline.

10. Petroleum Products

11. Gasoline Prices

12. Natural Gas Natural gas prices have fluctuated because of variable supply. New pipelines from Alaska may solve some of this problem.

13. Reserves and Resources Reserves are known sources that are extractable with current technologies at current prices. Resources include sources not currently being exploited because of cost and sources not yet discovered.

14. Oil and Gas Units Gbo billion barrels of oil. G stands for Giga. Used for global and US oil resources TCF trillion cubic feet. Used for global and US natural gas resources.

15. Example Problem 1 US annual oil consumption equals 7.2 Gbo. Express this value in millions of barrels per day. US Oil consumption = 7.2x10 9 bbl/ 365 days = 20 million bbl/day (11 million bbl day imported)

16. Global Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, Consumption Oil Reserves 1,000 Gbo Resources 1,700 Gbo Consumption 28 Gbo Natural Gas Reserves 5,500 TCF Resources 10,000 TCF Consumption 90 TCF

17. US Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, Consumption Oil Reserves 22 Gbo Resources 98 Gbo Consumption 7.2 Gbo Natural Gas Reserves 180 TCF Resources 710 TCF Consumption 23 TCF

18. Global Oil Resources Saudi Arabia26% Iraq11% Iran10% Kuwait10% UAE 6% Russia 5% Venezuela 5% Nigeria 3% Libya 3% China 3% Mexico 2% United States 2%

19. Global Oil Production Saudi Arabia12% United States11% Russia10% Iran 5% Mexico 5% Norway 5% China 4% Venezuela 4% Canada 4%

20. Global Natural Gas Resources Russia29% Iran16% Qatar13% Saudi Arabia 4% UAE 3% United States 3% Algeria 3% Nigeria 3% Venezuela 3% Iraq 2%

21. Global Natural Gas Production Russia23% United States22% Canada 7% United Kingdom 4% Algeria 3% Netherlands 3% Indonesia 3%

22. Example Problem 2 Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of US oil resources Lifetime = 98 Gbo / 7.2 Gbo/year = 14 years Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of global oil resources Lifetime = 1700 Gbo / 28 Gbo/year = 60 years What is wrong with these assumptions?

23. When will worldwide conventional oil production peak?

24. US Production Peaked in 1970

25. 00.511.522.533.54 Trillions of Barrels USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 Source: USGS and Colin Campbell Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery

26. Different Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 USGS Approach1995 Campbell/Laherrere Approach Unrecoverable Reserves Growth Undiscovered Proved Reserves Cumulative Production 3,000 Billion Unrecovered 4,200 Billion Unrecovered 50% Recovery Factor with Reserves Growth 30% Recovery Factor 40% Recovery Factor Without Reserves Growth Reserves Growth Adds 10% Billion Barrels

27. Campbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050 Campbell Production Peak 2004

32. When will Global Oil Production Peak?  Difficult to predict.  Depends on geology and economics.  Best estimates are sometime between 2004 and 2050.