1. Energy: Petrol Politics
Patterns of consumption
Oil and war
Peak Oil
Energy Return on Investment
Embodied energy
ENVIR 100 Lec. 17

2. 80% fossil fuels: but most ppl not burning fossil fuels 1 1

3. The glue of the global economy
U.S. led petroleum economy (1859)
5% population, uses 25% world’s oil
“The American way of life”
Per capita oil use
5 x world per capita consumption
80 x sub-Saharan Africa
Efficiency
Japan & W. Europe use ½ as much/unit of GDP
GDP growth directly correlates to oil use
87 MBD in 2008, 82 MBD in 2012
90% of reserves in 14 countries
2/3 reserves in Persian Gulf
ENVIR 100 Lec. 17

4. Oil and War Post WWI: Mideast oil rights to “7 sisters” WW2
Cold War: U.S. "surrogate policy”
Militarized Middle East
Islamic extremism & U.S. military presence
U.S. wars since 2001
ENVIR Lec. 17

5. The Food/Oil Connection

6. “Peak Oil”
Hubbert’s Peak: production peaks when half the oil is extracted
Accurately predicted U.S. peak (1970) in 1956
Depends upon estimate of reserves
Colin Campbell, Shell
Production has outrun discovery for 30 years
1.8 trillion barrels reserves > peak
USGS (2008): 3 trillion barrels > 2030
ENVIR 100 Lec. 17

7. Rising Cost of Oil $10/barrel (1998); $150 (2006); $80 today
IEA Peak Oil Predictions
2008: 2030
2009: 2020
2010: 2007
ENVIR 100 Lec. 17

8. Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
Petroleum
1900 ~ 100:1
2012 ~ 18:1
Coal
1930 ~ 80:1
2010 ~ 20:1
“Clean coal” ~ 5:1
Hydroelectric
Can be as high as 250:1
Solar
15:1 – varies enormously
ENVIR 100 Lec. 17

9. Embodied energy

11. “Normal Accidents”
POLS 384 Lec. 13