Availability of population estimates and projections Project EASY nowfuture -2-3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA EASY ONS EASY GLA Social Infrastructure Planning.

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Presentation transcript:

Availability of population estimates and projections Project EASY nowfuture -2-3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA EASY ONS EASY GLA Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy ONS 2001 Census £ GLA

Question for discussion Project EASY How important is population estimation to you? What is your view?

Census Project EASY Digitally available Changes in administrative boundaries Changes in reporting geography Changes in questions Value not just in population count Issues of accuracy and consistency over time

ONS small area population estimates Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: NHS patient register Child benefit Older persons dataset Special populations: 1.Prisoners 2.UK armed forces 3.Foreign armed forces and dependents Constrained to Local Authority MYE The first three data sets are used to calculate change ratios for quinary are groups and gender which are then applied to the previous year’s estimate. Key assumption is that the relationship between these data sets and the true population remains the same for all years at small area geographies.

GLA 2007 round demographic projections Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward Change analysis based on ONS MYE Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections Inputs are: Base population Fertility Mortality/survival migration matrix 2001 migration flow age structures , , gross inflows and net flows Development data 2004 household representative rates

Our criteria Project EASY Locally accessed data sets Up-to-the-moment estimates Small geographical areas (LSOA) Can be carried out locally by analysts Good quality data In order to develop useful population estimates, we adopted the following criteria: Model-based rather than counts-based Key starting point: dwelling stock by Council Tax bands