1. Professor Allan J. Brimicombe
Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies
Professor Allan J. Brimicombe
BA(Hons) M.Phil. Ph.D. C.Geog. FRGS FGS
Centre for Geo-Information Studies
University of East London, UK

2. Lower Super Output Areas
Project EASY
The study area
Lower Super Output Areas
(LSOA)
London Thames Gateway

3. Project EASY ONS small area population estimates
Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA
For LSOA estimates, data sets used are:
NHS patient register
Child benefit
Older persons dataset
Special populations:
Prisoners
UK armed forces
Foreign armed forces and dependents
Constrained to Local Authority MYE
The first three data sets are used to calculate
change ratios for quinary are groups and gender
which are then applied to the previous year’s
estimate.
Key assumption is that the relationship between
these data sets and the true population remains
the same for all years at small area geographies.

4. Project EASY GLA 2007 round demographic projections
Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward
Change analysis based on ONS MYE
Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE
Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections
Inputs are:
Base population
Fertility
Mortality/survival
migration matrix
2001 migration flow age structures
, , gross inflows and net flows
Development data
2004 household representative rates

5. Social Infrastructure Planning
Project EASY
Population estimates and projections
now
future -1 -2 -3
ONS
Borough
Ward
LSOA
UEL models
GLA
2001 Census
Locally accessible data sets
Up-to-the-moment estimates
Small geographical areas (LSOA)
Can be carried out locally by analysts
Good quality data
Social Infrastructure Planning
Local Authorities & PCTs
Community Infrastructure Levy

6. Project EASY
Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census)

7. Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy
Project EASY
Key variables
LSOA
LA_NAME LA
WARD X Y
Hect E
Barking and Dagenham
00AB
00ABFX
544994
184363
14.653 E
544179
184455
20.009 E
543654
184401
19.506 E
544587
184437
12.796 E
544244
184018
35.207 E
544427
184734
9.164 E
543907
184714
13.905 E
00ABFY
548956
184943
20.783 E
548510
184922
34.123 E
549586
185102
28.063 E
549117
185496
19.878 E
548925
185479
15.837 E
549372
185259
17.399 E
00ABFZ
547102
186478
18.387 E
547400
186240
18.724 E
546830
186034
16.936
Count of properties by Council Tax bands
Multiple Home Occupancy
Child Benefit
Schools Census (PLASC)

8. Project EASY Structure of the models Total Estimated Population
Population in Households without Dependent Children
Population in Families with Dependent Children
Households without Dependent Children
Families with Dependent Children
School Census
Separate model for each Borough
Occupied Households
Child Benefit Records
Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band
Houses with Multiple Occupancy

9. can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment.
Project EASY
Variables by Borough
Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses
and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population
can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment.
So, what are the results

10. Project EASY Comparing at 2001
This is the difference between our population estimation and ONS MYE for 2001 by LSOA. The figures are close. (With Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test), there is no significant different in 95% Confident level.

11. Project EASY
Comparing at 2005

12. Project EASY
Waltham Forest

13. Project EASY
Havering

14. Project EASY
Redbridge

15. Project EASY
Greenwich

16. Project EASY
Hackney

17. Project EASY
Change

18. Social Infrastructure Planning
Project EASY
Next steps
2001 Census
now
future -1 -2 -3
EASY
EASY
LSOA
(age structure)
Social Infrastructure Planning
Local Authorities & PCTs
Community Infrastructure Levy
Tools