The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Emissions, Transport and Stuff Mick Meyer,

Bushfire plume impacts in Melbourne, summer 2007 MetricM2.5 (µg m -3 )PM10 (µg m -3 )Bsp (Mm -1 ) volatile PM2.5 (µg m -3 ) non volatile PM2.5 (µg m -3 )SOA (µg m -3 ) Fires non- firesFiresnon-firesFiresnon-fires Fire s non- firesFires non- firesFires non- fires average MetricUCN (particles cm -3 ) less than 20 nm diameter (particles cm -3 ) 20 to 100 nm diameter (particles cm -3 ) greater than 100 nm (particles cm -3 )diameter of mode (nm) Firesnon-firesFiresnon-firesFiresnon-firesFiresnon-firesFiresnon-fires average Particle composition Particle size distribution 2264 hours non fire influenced 174 h ( 7.25 d) fire influenced = 7% of total hours  Increase in mortality by 20 to 40% on high pollution days.  = up to 300 smoke-caused deaths

Current Activities Bushfire Emissions accounting and dispersion Regional impacts of prescribed burning(DEWHA) Emissions accounting and verification in Savannas (DEWHA,ETS/Offsets) National mercury emissions (DEWHA Stockholm Convention) Dioxins and other POPS from bushfires(DEWHA, Stockholm convention) NGGI and state inventories(DCC, DEC WA) Air quality impacts(EPA Vic) Regeneration burning impacts and regulation(Forestry Tas, Tas EPA) Other biomass combustion sources In situ emissions from woodheaters in Launceston(DEWHA) In situ emissons from woodheaters in Christchurch,NZ(NIWA, NZ Govt) Source characterisation (particle size, chemistry, tracers) Bushfire CRC Personal exposure risk to air toxics for rural firefighters(DSIT, AFAC

PM2.5 exceedences PM2.5 emissions

substantial information gaps Characterisation of Australian aerosols; specifically radiative and cloud-nucleating properties Quantification of reactions and transformations of emission products during transport and deposition; Impacts of smoke on the atmospheric reactivity of airsheds in a changing climate; Climatology of smoke dispersion and deposition in Australia; Precise characterisation of rates, processes and composition of combustion products from biomass emission sources, both in the bush/urban interface and in rural and remote areas; Processes and rates of soil derived emission products during surface heating of soils; Verification of chemical transport models for local and regional scales

Areas of expertise within the streams 1.Emission source characterization, particularly from in situ measurements backed by laboratory simulations; 2.Long-term (and relatively low maintenance) monitoring of surface concentrations; 3.Chemical transport modelling; 4.Emissions accounting methodologies particularly international accounting protocols.

Observations Quantitative emissions modelling Measurement of parameter values Aerosol remote sensing Air quality monitoring Vegetation characteristics Hot-spots/fire scars Modular flexibility to take into account: Fuel load Fuel moisture Fuel accumulation models Vegetation classes Seasonality Burning efficiency and intensity  Greenhouse Gas Accounting - national inventory  Carbon credits and offsets accounting  Emissions accounting verification  Background pollutant concentrations  initialisation and boundary conditions for transport and air chemistry modelling`  Greenhouse gas accounting  Emissions verification  Health impacts  Aerosol impacts on regional climate  Transport models  Air chemistry models  Fine scale turbulance models

Transport modelling Air chemistry modelling Smoke plume dispersion HYSPLIT, TAPM, AAQFS, CALPUFF Ensemble meteorology, dispersion Chemical transport model incorporating inventory and fire emissions (AAQFS, TAPM CTM ) Tactical planning for prescribed burns  quantitative concentration  qualitative concentration Smoke transport from wildfire  operational planning  community (health) planning Decision support for fire management Local/regional/global aerosol transport Transport climatologies Quantitative chemical transport and Interaction: Quantitative emissions forecasts Local and regional air quality health impacts Climate change risks and impacts Transboundary/international transport International treaties (UN Stockholm Convention on POPS) Quantitative emissions modelling Stable tracers e.g. CO 2, CO, N 2 O, CH 4, particles etc Chemical transformations and deposition- ozone, secondary organic aerosol, reactive organics, NOx – Fine scale turbulence modelling Models, tools etc Complex combinations of emission sources, fast reaction chemistry Toxic exposures in the urban interface Smoke contamination of rural and other industries (e.g. grapes

Medium term objectives Characterise smoke aerosol radiative cloud nucleation properties, particularly in the tropics To develop emissions monitoring and accounting methodologies that can be used for mitigation and greenhouse gas offsets projects. These methodologies should be constrained and verified by surface observations of appropriate smoke tracer concentrations; To develop the history of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions from Australia resolved spatially to 1-5 km and temporally to 1 month ; The spatially-resolved climatology of surface concentrations of PM2.5 and related tracers to estimate population exposure and health risk from planned and unplanned fires in Australia and domestic wood burning. Impacts of smoke on climate, air quality and health under climate change Dispersion and impacts of smoke in urban and urban interface

Continuing areas of activity develop and improve the emissions algorithms; develop detailed characterisation of the emissions from: planned and unplanned fires in tropical savanna woodlands unplanned fires in southern forests; forest regeneration burns; agricultural burning, particularly of crop stubble; and domestic biomass combustion sources, particularly of wood heaters measure/constrain emission estimates using remotely sensed products; incorporate smoke emissions into regional chemical transport models; characterise smoke tracer species that can be easily sampled and monitored scale with other trace species that are atmospherically or toxicologically important but difficult to measure (laevoglucosan, PM2.5, CO, formaldehyde, NO x ). smoke impacts on rural and urban populations in a changing climate

Proposed Projects Bushfire CRC – Highly prospective 1.National bushfire emissions model for dispersion and climate change modelling Savannas, rangelands and forests Cover the fire intensity gradient (prescribed to wildfires) Parameterised from observations 2.Exposure risk to emergency service personnel and residents in urban interface fires Other Emissions and risks to rural populations from crop stubble burning

Mapping onto Bushfire CRC rebid programs Assessing Bushfire Risk Sustainable ecosystems and enhanced environments Living with the threat of fire Future role of people, technology and systems Observationsx Quantitative emissions modelling xx Transport modellingxx Air chemistry modelling xxx Fine scale turbulance modelling x?