1. F.O.F.E.M. 5 First Order Fire Effects Module Adapted from: Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory Systems for Environmental Management

2. “First-order effects” are the immediate consequences of a fire. Second-order effects?? –Longer term effects –Involve interaction with other agents Vegetation dynamics, insect-caused mortality, climate and weather, erosion –Examples: Tree regeneration, plant succession, site productivity Fuel consumption Smoke production Tree mortality Soil heating What is a “first-order” effect?

3. FOFEM 5 is used to… Quantify Fire Effects (Severity) vs. Fire Behavior (Intensity). Assess wildfire and prescribed fire impacts. –Ex. how many trees can we expect to survive? –Ex. how many centimeters of soil were exposed to lethal temperatures? Predict the effects of a current fire. –Ex. How much smoke will be produced? Design fire and silvicultural prescriptions. –Ex. Under what moisture conditions can we reduce duff by 30%? –Ex. How many acres can burn without exceeding particulate limits?

4. How FOFEM works FOFEM compiles fire effects data and models from the literature. FOFEM 5 automatically uses the best available equation or model. Creates default inputs for vegetation and fuel types – so the user doesn’t have to collect data.

5. FOFEM 5: Tree mortality By species and size 207 tree species Estimates bark thickness from species and diameter. Predicts mortality from bark thickness, crown scorch. Mortality algorithm does not account for: –season of burn, post-burn insect attack, drought, or resid. time

6. Tree mortality: inputs Set fire severityChoose region Define tree list Set fire intensity Select “mortality”

7. Tree mortality: outputs PROBABILITY OF MORTALITY FOR EACH SPECIES/DIAMETER Species Diameter Number Prob Mort Equ Code (inch) Trees Mort Number _____________________________________________ PSEMEN 1 300 1.00 1 PSEMEN 8 100 0.39 1 PINPON 20 25 0.07 1 STAND TREE MORTALITY Percent mortality: 49 Number of trees killed by the fire: 341 Average tree diameter of firekilled trees: 1.9 Percent mortality for trees 4+ in DBH: 23 Total prefire number of trees: 425

8. FOFEM 5: Fuel consumption Inputs needed: –Fuel load by size class (1,10,100,1000 hr fuels, etc.) –Fuel moisture Outputs generated: –Fuel consumption by size class –Post-burn fuel load

9. Fuel Consumption: inputs Fuel load Select region & classifica- tion Select cover type Select fuel category Set fuel load adjustments Select “Fuel”

10. Fuel Consumption: inputs Fuel load Set percent 3”+ load that is rotten Set percent crown fuel burned Set season of burn –Or you can input fuel load data directly.

11. Fuel Consumption: inputs Fuel moisture –Moisture condition (very dry, dry, moderate, wet) Choose moisture condition Or, you can input fuel moisture directly

12. Fuel Consumption: outputs Graph and report of pre-burn and post-burn fuel data.

13. FOFEM 5: Smoke production Predicts emission production rate. Gives proportion of flaming versus smoldering combustion Estimates production of: –PM10: affects visibility –PM2.5: trapped in human lungs –CO 2, CH 4, NOx, SOx, CO: greenhouse gases

14. FOFEM 5: Smoke production Inputs needed: –Fuel load by size class –Fuel moisture –(Same as fuel consumption) Outputs generated: –Smoke production over time for each emission molecule –Flaming and smoldering combustion Select “Smoke”

15. Smoke emissions: outputs Graph and tabular report of smoke production by component.

16. FOFEM 5: Soil heating Soil heating model: –predicts time, temperature, depth profiles

17. Soil heating: inputs Soil heating inputs are the same as fuel consumption, with two additions… Select “Soil” Choose soil texture Set soil moisture content (percent)

18. Soil heating: outputs Graph and tabular report of soil heating by depth.

19. FOFEM 5: Strengths Simple, easy to learn and use. Can be used for a variety of purposes. Accommodates variable level of input detail. Combines physical and empirical models from scientific research. Creates reports, graphs and data tables that can be incorporated into other documents, including GIS.

20. FOFEM: Weaknesses Outputs are only as good as the algorithms and default data in the fire literature. –Some defaults are only based on 2-3 studies –Some inputs are general (ex. moisture = low, medium, high). Assumes a continuous, complete burn (not patchy), so it may overestimate the effects. Does not estimate second order effects (ecological interactions) Forest-centric – only a few grass and shrub models