1. Integration of CMAQ into the Western Macedonia environmental management system A. Sfetsos 1,2, J. Bartzis 2 1 Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR Demokritos 2 Environmental Technology Laboratory, University of Western Macedonia, ts@ipta.demokritos.gr

2. Industrial Activity in Western Macedonia The greater lignite basin of the region is the major power supplier for Greece and FYROM. 65% of the electrical energy needs in Greece and 70% of FYROM are produced in the coal fired power plants in the region. The effect on air quality and regional climate of such an intensive anthropogenic activity needs to be systematically evaluated.

3. Environmental Concerns in Western Macedonia PM 10 exceedances are observed for the daily limit of 50μg/m 3 inside the basin under certain meteorological conditions. Accumulation of emissions from sources in the vicinity (traffic emissions, fugitive dust, biogenic emissions). The relative influence of which is still very much unresolved. Power generation activities (plants and mines) is the most likely source at neighbouring sites. Also long range transport of pollutants from the lignite power station operating close to the border with FYROM has been suggested.

5. Environmental information management in support of DSS Integrated GIS based system consisting of: –Geographical and population data –Detailed pollution sources registry –Depicting current conditions in real time –Detailed weather and air quality forecasting Dedicated web site http://airquality.uowm.grhttp://airquality.uowm.gr

6. Emissions Inventory Compile a highly detailed and reliable emissions inventory Registry of emissions on the highest spatial resolution (sub- municipal level, ~1  1 km 2 ), coupled with state-of-the-art emissions factors. Special emphasis on the most influential pollution sources. –Power plants and mining activities –Traffic –Fugitive dust –Biogenic (Forests) Use the UNC Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling tool. –Daily estimate of emissions based on the prevailing meteorology conditions

7. Annual NO x and CO emission inventories

8. Weather and Air Quality Forecasts PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) –version 3.7.2 –GFS initial conditions –23 vertical layers Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) –version 4.4 –CB4 chemical mechanism –Collapsing to 14 vertical layers Forecasts for 48 hours

9. Real time operational system

10. Working Domains Resolution / cell size D1: 38*38 cells / 54 km D2: 36*36 cells / 18 km D3: 54*54 cells / 6 km D4: 72*72 cells / 2 km

11. Innovative environmental management system aiming to –Continuously monitor and forecast air quality in the Amyntaio – Florina – Ptolemaida – Kozani basin. –Provide daily operational support for the operation of thermal power plants / mining activities based on environmental criteria. –Analyse decisions regarding the best available abatement techniques in both real time and longer horizons. UoWM – PPC environmental management system

12. Real time data Atmospheric Pollution Prediction Meteorological predictions GIS based information Hourly Emission Inventory Alternative scenarios examination Suggestions on station operation Emission sources

13. Current status - problems Fine tuning of emissions inventory –Many processes require customized solutions (e.g. mines - heating) Monitoring Data Availability –Sparse network –Currently “refurbishing” monitoring network –Quality assuring of existing data

14. Examples Selected case studies with different meteorology Only point sources included –Power plants in Western Macedonia and FYROM Constant IC/BC Matlab post-processing routines

15. Case study 1: 2 nd January 2006 S-SW winds

16. Case study 1: 2 nd January 2006 PM 10 snapshots – lowest vertical layer

17. Case study 2: 22 nd January 2006 N winds Near zero temperatures

18. Case study 2: 22 nd January 2006 SO 2 snapshots – lowest vertical layer

19. Case study 2: 22 nd January 2006 PM10 snapshots – lowest vertical layer

20. Conclusions Currently under development is an environmental management system that –Continuously monitors and forecasts air quality –Provides daily operational support for the operation of thermal power plants / mining –Analyses decisions regarding BAT in real time and longer horizons

21. Further Research Activities Development of risk assessment models. Utilization of models for emergency management and policy making approaches. Natural emissions contribution to PM and ozone formation Integration of GHG chemistry into meso-scale SMOKE – CMAQ and coupling with Radiative Forcing and Regional Climate Models