2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011) Teresa Chang, Planner Sept. 5, 2012

Presentation Outline Background of the Study Area What Do We Want to Know? Why Do We Update? How Do We Update? Introduction of TCModel 2011

Background— Study Area Changhua Taichung Nantou Taichung(29) Changhua(19) Nantou(2) Study Area – Taichung Urban Countys: Taichung, Changhua, Nantou Towns: 50 Area: 3,062.3 KM2 Population: 3.95million people

Background -Railway Master Plan Operations Taiwan Rail(gray) Taiwan High Speed Rail (yellow) Taichung Changhua Nantou Construction TR-Red Line (the project completion year is 2015) MRT-Green Line completion year is 2017) Planning MRT-Blue Line MRT-Orange Line

Background -Orange Line Taichung Changhua Nantou Taichung Airport Downtown $ Depot OA4 OA3 OA2 OA1 O1 O2 O3 O4/G7 O9/B9 O5 O6 O7 O8 O14 O16 O17 O15 O13 O12 O11 O10 MRT — Orange Line From OA4 To O17 Length,km (elevated) 14.7 Length,km (underground) 14.8 Total Length,km 29.5 Stations (elevated, ) 8 Stations (underground, ) 13 Total number of stations 21 MRT System MCT Depot 1 Transfer Stations ( , ) 2

What Do We Want to Know? When the future wil build Orange Line , …… 1 Percent of Private Trips to Total 2 Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day) and Revenue 3 Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area 4 Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips) 5 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel operating cost reductions) 6 Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits) 7 Emission Reductions (CO, NOx PM10) 8 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies

Why Do We Update? Development of TC Model 1994 1998 2003 2009 Tranplan+ Transport Base Year: 1988 Future Year: 2020 TAZs: 138(132+6)zones Household Travel Survey: 1990 (Samples: 12,000) Base Year: 1994 Future Year: 2021 TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones Household Travel Survey: 1995 (Samples: 1,700) TransCAD Base Year: 2001 Future Year: 2031 TAZs : 257(253+4)zones Household Travel Survey: No Base Year: 2007 TAZs: 257(253+4)zones The Household Travel Survey has been not conducted since 1995. TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps. Final model only has OD matries and the highway network. These data are out-of-date, incomplete or inaccurate.

TCModel 2011 How Do We Update ? TCModel 1994 Update Major updates Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy ! Better Data Good Tools Update screen line survey and cordon line survey Select a new modeling platform (CUBE) Update travel behavior survey TCModel 1994 Update Check and adjust trip generation rates Reconstruct the highway network and transit network Update and forecast the demographic data Check and update the Traffic Analysis Zones

How Do We Update ? – Model Methodology Outline Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model Traffic Assignment HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model PT: Best-Path Mode Split Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference Multinomial Logit Model(MNL) Trip Distribution Gravity Model Impedance Function: Gamma Function Trip Generation Production: Cross-classification Attraction: Multiple Regression Module Approaches

Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Model Structure 4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure Trip Generation Trip Distribution Traffic Assignment Mode Split

Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Model Characteristics Traffic Analysis Zones Internal: 320 zones External: 7 zones Reserve: 16 zones Total number of zones: 343 zones Network Total number of links: 42,681 links Transit Lines: 335 lines Analytical Modes Car Motor Bus Taiwan Rail MRT Analytical Period Weekday 24hrs Peak hour

Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Scenario Management Interface This provides a convenient interface for defining scenarios, editing and running the scenarios. Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) , 2041(Y130) Scenarios: Land Use Policies: Without TOD , With TOD Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare

Introduction of TCModel 2011 –Applications of Model Outputs Boarding Passengers Passengers Per Hour in Peak Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d) Passenger Kilometers Traveled (PKMT) Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT) Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKMT) Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) Average Speeds Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios Model Outputs Station Design Train Operation Plan Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis Financial Viability Analysis Policy Analysis Traffic Impact Analysis Sreen Line Analysis Applications of Model Outputs

The end Thank you! E-mail : teresa@thi.com.tw Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau